This Sunday the Seattle Seahawks will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kickoff is set for 4:05 EST at CenturyLink Field and will be televised locally on FOX.

Oddsmakers opened up this line at Seattle -6 and that’s where it sits at most books, though I do see at least one book up to -6.5. The total opened at 53 and it’s been bet down to 51 or 50.5 depending on where you shop.

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Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Bucs vs Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS)

The Buccaneers come into this one off a 27-23 loss at Tennessee in a game that just didn’t go their way. Tampa Bay’s offense put them in a whole early with two costly turnovers that set up TD drives of 10 yards or less for the Titans. They also forced a fumble that would have resulted in a TD had a ref not inadvertently blown the whistle.

You just have to wonder how much longer than Buccaneers can keep entrusting Jameis Winston to take care of the football. He threw two interceptions and fumbled three times (lost two). This came just one week after he threw 5 interceptions and had two fumbles (1 lost) in a 11-point setback at home against the Panthers.

Not knowing what you are going to get from Winston makes this a very difficult team to bet. The Buccaneers come in having failed to cover 3 straight. The OVER has cashed in 5 straight TB games.

Seattle Seahawks (6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)

Seattle comes into this one off a 27-20 road win at Atlanta and wound up pushing as a 7-point favorite. Most assumed the Seahawks were catching a break with Matt Ryan unable to go for the Falcons, but backup Matt Schaub put on quite the performance. Schaub completed 39 of 52 attempts for 460 yards. Julio Jones was the main recipient of all those passes, hauling in 10 for 152 yards.

It was a nice bounce back win for Seattle after losing 30-16 at home to the Ravens the week before. The only other setback for the Seahawks is a 6-point home loss to the Saints.

While Seattle owns a 6-2 SU record, they have not been the best of bets early on with just 3 covers in 8 games games.

Matchup History

This will be just the second time these two teams have faced off in the last 5 years with the only other meeting coming in 2016, which the Buccaneers won 14-6 as a 5-point home dog.

Free NFL Predictions & Betting Pick: OVER 50.5

I just don’t see a ton of value on the spread. While 6-points seems a little high, so much of the Bucs ability to keep this game close rides on the arm of Jameis Winston. I would instead look to play the OVER at 50.5, as I think this has a shootout written all over it.

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The OVER has cashed in each of the Bucs last 5 games and it’s pretty easy to see why with all the points they are giving up. Tampa Bay has allowed 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this season.

I also don’t think this is an ideal spot for the defense to play well against an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson (TB 31st vs pass) and the fact that a lot of the Bucs players have to be running on fumes. Tampa Bay hasn’t played a home game since Week 3 (Sept. 22) as 4 of their last 5 have been true road games and the other was played in London.

As for Seattle’s defense, this is not the same vaunted Seahawks defense of years past. Seahawks are 27th against the pass and middle of the pack against the run. While the OVER is just 4-3 in their last 5, each of the last two games have barely stayed UNDER. They combined for 46 with a total of 48.5 against the Ravens and 47 with a total of 48.5 against the Falcons.

OVER is 15-5 in the Bucs last 20 road games and that includes a 9-2 OVER mark on the road with a total of 45.5 or more. OVER is also 11-2 in the Seahawks last 13 home games after a contest where they gave up 7 or more yards/play in their last game. Give me the OVER 50.5!