The Buffalo Bulls (9-2) travel to Ohio this Friday for a showdown with the Bowling Green Falcons (3-8). Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST at Doyt L. Perry Stadium and the game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
Taking a look at the Week 13 college football odds, Buffalo opened as a 13.5-point road favorite earlier this week. That line has shifted by a full point after early betting, as the Bulls are currently listed at -14. The total for the game is sitting at 58 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Bowling Green vs Buffalo
Buffalo dropped to 9-2 on the season last weekend after getting crushed 52-17 to Ohio. The Bulls were badly outplayed on both sides of the ball, getting outgained 646-277 in total yardage and losing the turnover battle 5-1. While they did get out to a quick 7-0 lead, it was all downhill from there as the Bobcats put up 31 points in the second quarter and never looked back. QB Tyree Jackson is definitely a dual-threat under center, averaging 223.1 passing yards per game while also finding the end zone seven times on the ground. Jackson has also thrown 24 touchdowns and ten interceptions over his first 11 games. He has had a ton of help in the receiving game from Anthony Johnson and K.J. Osborn, who have combined for 15 touchdowns. On the ground, the duo of Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks are averaging about 65 yards on the ground per game and have racked up 19 touchdowns. Overall, Buffalo is currently averaging 34.5 points per game on 413.6 yards of total offense.
The Bulls have looked fairly average on the other side of the ball this year, as opponents are currently averaging 25.2 points per game on 357.6 total yards of offense. However, Buffalo has been fantastic defending against the pass, allowing an average of just 177.5 yards through the air per game (14th overall).
Bowling Green improved to 3-8 on the season last weekend after a solid 21-6 road victory over Akron. The Falcons were touchdown underdogs prior to kickoff, but their solid play on defense helped them pull off the upset. The Zips could only manage 2.8 yards per carry on the ground while QB Kato Nelson was held to just 148 passing yards. Bowling Green was also impressive on the other side of the ball, racking up over 400 yards of total offense. QB Jarret Doege has played well this season, throwing 26 touchdown passes and averaging 234.2 yards through the air per game. The receiving duo of Scott Miller and Quintin Morris are also a big part of the Bowling Green offence, combining for 14 touchdowns in 11 games. RB Andrew Clair leads the way on the ground, averaging 68.9 yards per game on about 13 carries. As a whole, the offense is averaging 25.3 points per game on 369.1 total yards.
The Falcons have been one of the worst teams in the entire country defensively, giving up an average of 39.6 points per game to opponents (122nd overall). Despite giving up just 169.1 passing yards per game, (9th overall) they have been getting torched on the ground all year long. Bowling Green is currently allowing 275.8 rushing yards per game (127th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Buffalo -14
Despite the fact that they got dismantled by Ohio last weekend, I still think that the Bulls offer the best value in this particular spot. Buffalo still has a lot to play for, as a they need to win this game in order to win the MAC East and clinch a spot in the MAC Championship game. Bowling Green had a nice performance on defense last weekend against a poor Akron offense, but I’m not buying the narrative that they have suddenly turned things around. The Falcons have given up an average of almost 40 points per game in the country this season, so the Bulls offense should be able to score early and often in this matchup.
Click on the link for more free college football picks from our experts on staff.
Bowling Green is just 1-5 ATS over their last six games against teams with a winning record. They are also a brutal 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games. Buffalo is a rock-solid 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record. They are also an impressive 4-1 ATS over their last five games on the road.
Buffalo is also a much better team on defense then they showed in Week 12 against the Bobcats – especially against the pass where they currently rank inside of the top 25 schools nationwide. Bowling Green is a pretty pass-heavy team and are averaging just 121.9 yards per game on the ground (116th overall). I don’t see how they will be able to move the ball with any consistently, as they simply don’t match up well with the Bulls at all. I’m going to lay the two touchdowns and take the road favorite to cover – give me Buffalo.