The California Golden Bears travel to Colorado this weekend to take on the Buffaloes in Pac 12 action. Kickoff will be at 2:00 PM EST on Saturday, October 28th at Folsom Field in Boulder, Colorado. The game will be televised on the Pac 12 Network.
Colorado enters this game as 3 point home favorites. Early betting has yet to change the line, as the Buffaloes originally opened at -3. The over/under for the game is 50 points. Click here for a full list of Week 9 betting odds and links to game previews.
California vs Colorado Vegas Betting Line & Game Preview
The Golden Bears dropped back to .500 on the season after a heartbreaking 45-44 loss to Arizona in double overtime last weekend. Despite trailing by two touchdowns at halftime, California fought all the way back before failing to convert on a two point conversion to win the game outright. QB Ross Bowers continued his habit of throwing multiple touchdowns AND interceptions in the same game, passing for 301 yards in the process. He leads the way for this Golden Bears offense that is averaging 28.4 points per game and 363.6 total yards. Defensively, California has looked like somewhat of a middle of the road unit for much of the year. They are allowing an average of 28.4 points per game while giving up an average of 433.4 total yards. Defending against the pass has been a struggle, as they are currently ranked 100th overall after allowing teams to average 258.0 yards through the air per game.
Colorado also fell back to .500 on the year after getting shutout by Washington State by a score of 28-0. The Cougars dominated defensively all game, limiting the Buffaloes to just 174 total yards. Outside of last weeks performance, this Colorado offense has actually been somewhat decent. They are averaging almost 400 total yards per game and have managed to put up 25.8 points per game. RB Philip Lindsay has looked fantastic, averaging over 135 yards per game and rushing for a total of ten touchdowns in just 8 games. QB Steven Montez has been efficient, completing 61.8% of his passes while averaging 214 passing yards per game. On the over side of the ball, the Buffaloes have limited their opponents to 24.6 points per game. However, they have also allowed an average of 422.0 total yards per game, which is 97th overall. They have especially struggled against the run, allowing an average of 193.9 rushing yards per game (96th).
Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: OVER 50
I initially thought about targeting Colorado at home in this spot, especially when considering the way in which California lost last weekend. I am usually a fan of betting against teams coming off tough losses. Losing 45-44 in double overtime on a failed two point conversion certainly qualifies as a heartbreaking loss. It will be tough for the Golden Bears to avoid a potential letdown on the road this week.
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However, I think the better value in this particular spot is taking the over on 50 points. At first glance, both of these teams have certainly looked at least mediocre defensively. After digging a little bit deeper, I noticed a couple things that really stood out. First, the Buffaloes have really struggle to defend effectively in conference play – they are currently giving up an average of 34.0 points per game against Pac 12 opponents. The Golden Bears, on the other hand, are allowing an average of 37.6 points per game on the road. Cal has also scored 35+ points in two straight games while Colorado has scored 35+ in 2 out of their last 3 games.
So, we have two teams that have struggled defensively in specific match-ups that seem to be manifesting themselves again this week. Both offenses have shown that they are more than capable of scoring 30+, and the over/under is currently set at 50. I’m expecting this to be a fairly high scoring game that should see between 50-60 points being scored. I think Colorado will ultimately find a way to win this one at home, but my favorite play in this particular game is definitely the over.