The Toledo Rockets (6-5) host the Central Michigan Chippewas (1-10) on Friday afternoon for a Mid-American Conference showdown. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST at Glass Bowl Stadium and the game will be broadcast on ESPN3.
Taking a look at the Week 13 college football odds, Toledo opened as a 18-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has shifted by half a point after early betting, as the Rockets are currently listed at -18.5. The total for the game is sitting at 53 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Toledo vs Central Michigan
Central Michigan couldn’t find a way to get past Bowling Green last weekend, losing 24-13 at home to drop to 1-10 on the season. The Chippewas were badly outplayed on both sides of the ball, getting outgained 320-166 in total yardage. It was an especially tough loss for Central Michigan to handle, as they were up 13-0 at halftime before giving up 24 unanswered points in the second half. QB Austin Hergott didn’t play well at all, completing just 11 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. He also threw an interception and lost 15 yards on two rushing attempts. It has certainly been a long season for the offense, as they are currently averaging just 15.2 points per game (127th overall).
Things have been much better on the other side of the ball so far this season, as the Chippewas are currently giving up a respectable 25.2 points per game (54th overall). However, they have struggled a little bit defending against the run, as opponents are averaging 196.6 yards per game on the ground (97th overall).
Toledo became bowl-eligible last weekend after a dominant 56-34 road victory over Kent State. The Rockets offense certainly had a lot of help from their special teams and defense, as Toledo returned a punt for a touchdown and took an interception all the way to the house for a crucial 14 points. QB Eli Peters played fairly well, completing 11 of 14 passing attempts for 131 yards and two touchdowns. The star of the game was without a doubt RB Bryant Koback, who racked up 192 yards and two touchdowns on just 17 touches. RB Art Thompkins also had a big game, turning 14 carries into 122 rushing yards and another two touchdowns on the ground. As a whole, Toledo is currently averaging an impressive 40.2 points per game (13th overall).
The Rockets haven’t looked quite so impressive on the other side of the ball, as they are giving up an average of 31.7 points per game (91st overall) through 11 games. They have really had a hard time defending against the pass, giving up an average of 269.1 yards per game through the air (113th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Toledo -18.5
As much as I would love to take all the free points in this particular matchup, I just don’t have any faith whatsoever in the Central Michigan offense. They are currently scoring the third-fewest points per game in the entire country and now have to go up against a quality Toledo offense that is averaging over 40 points per game. I know the Rockets haven’t been all that great on the other side of the ball, but I’m really not sure that will even matter against a Chippewas team that has such little firepower offensively.
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Toledo is a rock-solid 13-4 ATS over their last 17 games against opponents with a losing record. They are also an impressive 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Central Michigan. The Chippewas are just 1-5 ATS over their last six conference games. They are also only 3-7 ATS in their last ten Friday games and 0-5 ATS over their last five visits to Glass Bowl Stadium.
The Rockets are averaging over 25 more points per game than Central Michigan, which certainly doesn’t bode well for the road team in this particular spot. If Toledo can find a way to score more than 30 points – and I think that they will – they should have no problem covering the spread on Friday afternoon. I’m laying the 18.5 points and taking the home favorite to put on another show offensively at home.