The Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) will attempt to get back to .500 on the season when they host the San Francisco 49ers (1-2) this weekend. Kickoff is set for 4:05 PM EST on Sunday, September 30th at the StubHub Center. The game will be televised on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Chargers as as 10.5-point home favorites. That line has remained unchanged, as Los Angeles is currently available at -10.5. The total for this matchup is 47.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 4 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Chargers vs 49ers Vegas Odds & Game Preview
San Francisco lost on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend, dropping a tough 38-27 decision to fall to 1-2 on the season. The big story for the 49ers in that game was the devastating loss of QB Jimmy Garoppolo who is done for the year after tearing his ACL last weekend. San Francisco also may have lost starting RB Matt Breida, who is currently questionable for Sunday after suffering an apparent knee injury. It looks like the 49ers will turn to C.J. Beatheard, who completed 54.9 percent of his passes for 1,430 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. As a whole, San Francisco is currently averaging 24.3 points per game on 359.7 total yards. They have looked great on the ground so far this season, averaging a very impressive 152.7 rushing yards per game (2nd).
The 49ers have really struggled defensively over the first few weeks of the season, allowing opponents to average 29.7 points per game on 384.7 total yards. While San Francisco has looked pretty good against the run, they have struggled the most against the pass, giving up an average of 287.7 yards per game through the air (27th).
The Chargers also fell to 1-2 on the season last week, losing a tough 35-23 decision to the Rams. QB Philip Rivers has had a fantastic start to the season, throwing for over 900 yards and eight touchdowns over his first three games of the year. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have led the way for the receiving corps, as the speedy duo has combined for 408 yards and four touchdowns. Los Angeles is currently averaging 27.3 points per game on 415.3 total yards. The Chargers have really excelled both on the ground and through the air, racking up an average of 124.3 and 291.0 yards per game respectively.
Los Angeles has been absolutely dreadful defensively over the first few weeks of the season, allowing opponents to average 31.0 points on 392.0 total yards per game – the second worst scoring defense in the NFL. The Chargers seem to have had the most trouble defending against the pass, as they are giving up an average of 271.7 yards per game through the air.
Free NFL Betting Prediction: Chargers -10.5
I think that Los Angeles offers a ton of value in this particular spot. They get to take on a team that could potentially be missing their starting quarterback AND running back. Beathard showed last season that he is not capable of being a starting quarterback in the NFL – the 49ers lost four out of the six games he played in by 10+ points. I think that is a trend that is likely to continue here in Week 4. San Francisco has been pretty impressive on the ground, but a large part of that was due to the stellar play of Breida at running back. Even if he is able to suit up for this one, he will likely be at less than 100% and won’t have the benefit of Garoppolo spreading out the defenders a bit further downfield. The Chargers have been rolling on offense, as they are currently in the Top 10 league-wide in terms of scoring.
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Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS over their last six games after an ATS loss, 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home against teams with a losing road record, and 5-2 ATS over their last seven games overall against teams with a losing record. San Francisco is 2-6 ATS over their last eight games in September. They are also just 1-4 ATS over their last five meetings with the Chargers, which definitely makes me lean toward the home team in this one.
The Chargers certainly haven’t been great defensively, as they currently sit 24th overall in scoring defense. However, they should have a big game this weekend against a backup quarterback that looked dreadful during his time as a starter last season. Beathard threw more interceptions than touchdowns in 2017-18 and there is no reason to think that things will be different this season. I think Los Angeles will roll over a deflated 49ers team and win by 2+ touchdowns. I’ll lay the points and take the Chargers.