broncos-chargers

This Sunday the Denver Broncos will host the San Diego Chargers in Week 8 action. These two teams just played in Week 6 with San Diego winning 21-13 as a 3-point home dog. This AFC West rematch is set for 4:05 EST at Sport Authority Field. The Game will be televised locally on CBS. Oddsmakers have the Broncos as a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 43.5 points. Click here for more NFL leans and game odds.

Chargers vs Broncos Vegas Betting Preview

San Diego (3-4) comes into this one off a thrilling 33-30 overtime win at Atlanta. The Chargers overcame a 10-point deficit in the 4th quarter, tying the game on a last second field goal.

Denver (5-2) avoided it’s third straight loss with a convincing home win over the Texans on MNF. Defeating their quarterback from last year in Brock Osweiler. The Broncos forced two turnovers and held Houston to just 271 total yards.

Free Pick & Point Spread Predictions: Broncos -4.5

I know San Diego just laid it on Denver two weeks ago, but I’ll take my chances with the Broncos in this spot. Keep in mind that in that first loss to the Chargers, Denver was without head coach Gary Kubiak. A huge loss given they had to play San Diego on short rest with the game on Thursday Night Football.

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Denver came out flat without Kubiak on the sidelines and fell behind 10-0 early. They aren’t a team to play from behind, especially on offense. Trevor Siemian ended up throwing it 50 times. The only game this season where he’s attempted more than 35 passes. It’s also important to note that Kubiak calls the plays offensively and is one of the best in the league doing so.

I think we get a much different result here with a more focused Denver team. Especially playing at home, where they are 35-7 since the start of the 2012 season. I know revenge isn’t huge in the NFL, but I think this is a spot where it comes into play.

I also think it’s important to look at the line here. Just two weeks ago Denver was a 3-point road favorite at San Diego. Given home field advantage they should be around a 6.5-7 point home favorite. With the line currently at 4.5, we are getting 2+ points in value on the Broncos.

There could be some concern here with Denver losing starting running back C.J. Anderson. I don’t think it’s going to make a difference. Rookie Devontae Booker has actually been more effective this season. Booker is averaging 4.8 yards/carry, while Anderson was at 4.0 yards/carry.

I also think this is a tough spot San Diego. The Chargers have laid it all on the line the last two weeks against the Broncos and Falcons. They also aren’t going to surprise Denver with the wrinkles they threw into their offense the first time around.

While San Diego has won and covered in two straight. They are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win. The Chargers are also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game. Denver is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Broncos are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win.