The Jacksonville Jaguars go for their third straight win when they host the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, November 12 at EverBank Field in Jacksonville. The game can be seen on CBS in local markets.

Oddsmakers see Jacksonville as 4-point favorites at home with an over/under of 41 points. Click here for a full list of the Week 10 betting odds and links to more game previews.

Chargers vs Jags Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions

The Jaguars broke their string of inconsistency last week with a convincing win over the Bengals. Jacksonville is now 5-3 on the season and tied with the Titans at the top of the AFC South. The Jags have a favorable schedule during the second half of the season, so if head coach Doug Marrone can keep his team playing at a high level, Jacksonville has a real shot to reach the playoffs.

The Chargers, meanwhile, have started to turn things around after a rough start but still have a lot of work to do. Los Angeles managed to win three in a row to help negate a 0-4 start. But a loss to the Patriots prior to last week’s bye has them at 3-5. The team’s schedule in November is not so forgiving. The Chargers need to find a way to steal a win or two as an underdog in order to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Free Pro Football Pick Against the Spread: Jaguars -4

The Chargers have gotten the better of Jacksonville for the past decade, not losing to the Jaguars since 2007. But the Jags are a different team this year. They can run the ball effectively and play great defense. Against a team like the Chargers that’s been up and down, that should be enough to cover a 4-point spread. I’ll lean toward Jacksonville at home.

The Jacksonville defense has been great all year, but they’ve taken it to another level the past two weeks, giving up a total of seven points. Granted, those games were against the Colts and Bengals, but the Jags were dominant nonetheless. Cincinnati was held to less than 150 total yards and just eight first downs. The Colts were nearly as bad the previous week.

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The Los Angeles offense is averaging less than 20 points per game on the season. Even when the Chargers won three in a row, they rarely looked explosive offensively or were able to create a lot of big plays. Now they have to contend with the best pass rush in the NFL and a team that’s ready to pounce on every little mistake.

Of course, the Jacksonville running game also deserves a great deal of credit. The Jags lead the NFL in rushing, which allows them to take the air out of the ball and put their defense in a position to succeed. It also helps keep the pressure of Blake Bortles. Even when Leonard Fournette hasn’t played, which is the case again this week, Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon have managed to fill in without a huge drop-off in production.

Of course, the Los Angeles defense is also one of the best in the NFL. If they can keep the Jacksonville rushing attack under wraps, they also have a pass rush that can give Bortles all kinds of trouble.

If the Chargers can make this a low-scoring defensive battle, they’ll have a chance in the 4th quarter. The absence of Fournette is significant, but it’s not enough to make me lean the other way. The Jacksonville defense is too good and Philip Rivers is too turnover prone. I can see the Jags scoring a defensive touchdown that helps them to cover the 4-point spread.