This Sunday the Cleveland Browns (2-5-1) will host the Kansas City Chiefs (7-1) in one of the more intriguing matchup of Week 9. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at FirstEngery Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS.
Two big focal points here. The Browns will be playing their first game since firing head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Second the connection that starting quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes have from their epic showdown in 2016. When Mayfield’s Sooners beat Mahomes Red Raiders 66-59 in a game that saw all kinds of records broken. Mayfield threw for 545 yards and accounted for 7 touchdowns. Mahomes attempted a ridiculous 88 passes for 734 yards and 5 total scores.
Oddsmakers currently have the Chiefs listed as a 8-point road favorite and the total at 51.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 9 betting odds and for more links to our game previews.
Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview: Chiefs vs Browns
Kansas City comes into this one off a 30-23 win at home over the Broncos. The Chiefs ended up not covering as a 8-point favorite, but it felt like they should have. Kansas City was really in control the entire way and had a 30-14 edge going into the 4th quarter. The Chiefs had covered all 7 of their games leading up to that one. Mahomes put on another show with 303 yards and 4 more touchdown passes.
The vibe is a lot different in Cleveland, where the Browns feel like they have underachieved with their 2-5-1 start. It led to the firing of both Haley and Jackson. The final straw being last week’s 33-18 loss at Pittsburgh. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has been promoted to interim head coach and running back coach Freddie Kitchens will serve as the new OC.
Free NFL Betting Pick & Predictions: OVER 51.5
My early lean here would be to play the OVER at 51.5. If I had to take a side, I would roll the dice with the Chiefs. I’m sure Gregg Williams is going to have this team excited to play and the Browns are going to come out 100% ready for this game. They still aren’t going to have an answer for Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. I just think there’s something special going on with Mahomes and that offense this year. What is Cleveland going to to do that others haven’t tried?
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I know the Browns defense played well early on and everyone was saying how good this unit was going to be. They come into this game ranked 28th against the run (138.9 ypg) and 27th against the pass (289.9 ypg). They are giving up 414.5 ypg (28th). That’s the defense that is going to stop the Chiefs. They have allowed 25 or more in 4 of their last 5, including a game against the Raiders where they allowed 45.
Kansas City is averaging 36.2 ppg and I think they at worst score 30 points here. That means, all we need is around 21 points (likely less) from the Browns to eclipse the total. I know it seems dire for Cleveland’s offense losing their OC and HC the week before a game, but I think this Chiefs defense is just bad enough, especially on the road, to allow Mayfield and that Browns offense to move the football.
Keep in mind the Chiefs are giving up 32.7 ppg and 475 yards/game on the road this season. All four of their road games have seen at least 50 points and three of them have had 66 or more, including a 83-point game against the Patriots in their last away game. Give me the OVER 51.5