This Sunday the Atlanta Falcons will host the Kansas City Chiefs. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at the Georgia Dome and will be televised locally on CBS. Oddsmakers have the Falcons as a 4-point favorite with the total at 49 points. Click here for more Week 13 NFL betting odds and free game leans.

Chiefs vs Falcons Vegas Odds Preview

Kansas City (8-3) comes in off a huge road 30-27 OT win at Denver on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs led 16-10 going into the 4th quarter, but were down 16-24 with 3 minutes to play. Alex Smith took KC 75-yards for a touchdown and 2-point conversion to send the game to OT. The Chiefs answered Denver’s field goal and won the game a 34-yard field goal in the final seconds.

Atlanta (7-4) enters off an impressive 38-19 win at home over the Cardinals. The Falcons led just 17-13 at the half, but outscored Arizona 21-6 in the 2nd half for a comfortable win. It was a big win for Atlanta coming off their bye, as Tampa Bay remains just 1-game back of them in the NFC South.

Free Pick & Betting Predictions: Chiefs +4

I’ll take the points with Kansas City on the road against the Falcons. The Chiefs are tied for the 4th best record in the league, yet no one wants to give them any respect. Which is a little bit surprising given KC is now 18-3 in their last 21 regular season games. Not to take anything away from Atlanta, but I just think the value is with KC at +4 in a matchup between two top level teams.

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I know the Falcons have an elite offense, but the Chiefs are trending up on the defensive side of the ball. A big part of that is the return of star outside linebacker Justin Houston. He was dominant against Denver and that dynamic pass rush is something they have been lacking.

Keep in mind the Chiefs were missing two key players on defense last week. One being outside linebacker Dee Ford, who is T-2nd in the NFL with 10 sacks. It’s up in the air if he will play. If he does, Matt Ryan could be in for a long day. If he doesn’t, KC still will still be able to get pressure with Houston and veteran Tamba Hali.

I’m not saying the Chiefs are going to completely shut down the Falcons, but they can keep them from going off. That should be all the offense needs to keep this game close and potentially win outright. While KC’s offense is limited, this Atlanta defense is one they can have success against. The Falcons rank 27th in total defense (381.0 ypg) and 29th in scoring defense (27.5 ppg).

Keep in mind this is also an Atlanta defense that has recently loss two of their top defensive players. Shutdown corner Desmond Trufant is likely out the rest of the year. He’s by far their best cover guy. They will also be without defensive end Adrian Clayborn for an extended period. A big loss, as he’s second on the team with 4.5 sacks.

It’s also worth pointing out the Chiefs have been road covering machines under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 16-6 ATS on the road after the 1st month of the season under Reid. KC is also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams allowing 24.0 or more ppg. On the flip side of this, Atlanta has struggled to cover as a favorite under Dan Quinn. They are just 3-11 ATS as a favorite since he took over as head coach.