The Kansas City Chiefs are set to host the New England Patriots this Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. Kickoff is set for 6:40 EST at Arrowhead Stadium and will be televised nationally on CBS.
Oddsmakers currently have the Chiefs listed as a 3-point home favorite with the total set at 57 points. Click on the link for the latest NFL betting odds.
Patriots vs Chiefs Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview
There were plenty of people that though Philip Rivers and the Chargers were going to go into Foxboro and upset the Patriots. As we all know, that didn’t even come close to happening. New England put the game away early, as they took a 35-7 lead into the half and coasted to a 41-28 victory.
Tom Brady threw for 343 yards on 34 of 44 passing. Out of those 34 completions, 24 of them went to two different guys. Julian Edelman had 9 catches for 151 yards and James White hauled in 15 receptions (tied postseason record) for 97 yards. It was also a big day for Sony Michael, who had 24 carries for 129 yards and 3 scores.
The Chiefs were equally dominant in their 31-13 home win over the Colts. Kansas City jumped out to a 17-0 lead and were up 24-7 at the half. The only touchdown for the Colts coming on a blocked punt that was recovered in the endzone. The Chiefs outgained the Colts 433 to 266 with a 29-15 edge in first downs.
One thing that sticks out to me is the Chiefs were able to dominate the game without a single touchdown pass from Mahomes, who went 27 of 41 for 278 and was sacked 4 times. Damien Williams has been the unsung hero for this team, as he rushed for 129 yards on 25 attempts. The other big storyline has to be the defense and how well it played.
These two teams played back in Week 6 at New England, which the Patriots won 43-40 on a last second field goal. The two teams combined for 946 yards with the two signal callers accounting for most of the damage. Mahomes was 23 of 36 for 352 yards, while Brady went 24 of 35 for 340 yards.
Free NFL Pick & Betting Predictions: Chiefs -3
I was all over Kansas City in their win last week against the Colts and would have to lean towards laying the field goal with the Chiefs at home in this one. I just think this one comes down to homefield advantage. There’s not a tougher place to play in the NFL, especially in a game of this magnitude, than Arrowhead Stadium.
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The noise and energy that the fans provide this Chiefs team at home is undeniable. All you have to do is watch how the Chiefs defense played at home compared to on the road. It’s hard to believe it’s even the same team. They didn’t just hold serve against Andrew Luck and the Colts, they completely shutdown Indianapolis’ offense.
I get it’s a little different going up against the likes of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but the Patriots don’t exactly have the greatest track record on the road. While New England is headed to a ridiculous 8th straight AFC Championship Game, they have only played two of the previous seven on the road and lost both. Patriots are just 3-4 in playoff road games under Brady and haven’t won on the road since 2006.
It’s not just the outcome, but the play on the field. Brady has a 46 to 18 TD-INT ratio in home playoff games and 8-8 ratio on the road. Many of you might recall the last time Brady visited Arrowhead. It was a Monday Night Football game back in Week 4 of 2016, which the Chiefs won 41-14. Brady was just 14 of 23 for 159 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.
On the flip side of this, I don’t think there’s any stopping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense, especially now that they got back wide out Sammy Watkins. It’s no secret that Belichick’s defense is all about taking away a team’s best player, but there’s simply too many weapons to account for and Mahomes has shown he will take whatever the defense gives him. Give me the Chiefs -3!