The New England Patriots (3-2) are set to host the Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 EST at Gillette Stadium and will be televised nationally on NBC.
Taking a look at the Week 6 NFL odds, the books have the Patriots listed as a 3.5-point home favorite and the total set anywhere from 59 to 60 points.
Patriots vs Chiefs Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview
Kansas City enters off an impressive 30-14 win at home over the Jaguars as a slim 3-point home favorite. There were all kinds of talks about how Jacksonville’s top rated defense was going to bring the Mahomes hype to a complete stop, but the second-year signal caller delivered once again. While Mahomes did throw his first two interceptions, he was 22 of 38 for 313 yards and scored his second rushing touchdown of the season. The even bigger story was the play of the Chiefs defense, which allowed a season-low 14 points and forced a season-high 5 turnovers.
New England won and covered as a double-digit favorite in a 38-24 win over the Colts on Thursday Night Football. Tom Brady hit another milestone with his 500th touchdown pass, as he torched Indy’s secondary for 341 yards and 3 scores.
Many will recall last year’s meeting between these two teams, as it was the regular-season opener on Thursday Night. The Patriots jumped out to a 17-7 lead, but it was Alex Smith and the Chiefs offense that stole the spotlight in a 42-27 win at Foxboro.
Free NFL Pick & Betting Predictions: OVER 59
I want absolutely nothing to do with the spread in this one. I want absolutely nothing to do with betting against the Chiefs right now and I’m certainly not betting against Brady and Belichick at home in a prime time game. My early lean here is arguably the most obvious play and that’s for this game to go OVER the total of 59.
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I know this is a ridiculously high total, but with the talent these two teams have at quarterback and at the skill positions and the defenses they will be up against, I think both have a legit shot at eclipsing 30-points.
There will be plenty who point out Mahomes coming back to reality after throwing his first two interceptions of the season and failing to throw a TD pass. Was it his best game? No. The kid still threw for 313 yards on 22 of 38 passing against what most considered the best defense in the league. One that a lot of other more accomplished quarterbacks have struggled against.
KC didn’t just have 300+ yards passing on the best defense in the league, they also rushed for 126 yards. I think the Chiefs are going to continue doing exactly what they have been doing, and that’s move the football up and down the field on the Patriots. New England’s defense just doesn’t impress me. They let Blake Bortles throw for 377 yards and last week Andrew Luck had 355 yards playing with a bunch of scrubs.
As for the Chiefs defense, they were fortunate to only hold the Jaguars to 14 points, as Jacksonville moved the ball at will with 502 yards and 29 first downs. Bortles simply made a bunch of costly mistakes and the offense turned it over 5 times. KC isn’t going to get those breaks against a quarterback the likes of Tom Brady. Last week the Patriots got back one of his top targets in Julian Edelman and I think this could be the game where Josh Gordon really starts to take off in that offense.
I see big plays happening at every turn and this being one of the most entertaining games of the season to date. OVER is 9-2 in Andy Reid’s last 11 games as the coach of the Chiefs when KC is a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-9 in the Patriots last 28 under Belichick at home with a total at 49.5 or more. Give me the OVER 59!