The Los Angeles Rams (9-1) will host the Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) in a highly anticipated showdown on Monday Night Football. The game was originally scheduled to be played in Mexico City, but the game was moved to LA’s Memorial Coliseum because of poor field conditions. Kickoff is set for 8:15 EST and will be televised on ESPN.
Taking a look that the Week 11 NFL odds, the books have the Rams listed as a 3.5-point home favorite with the total set for 63.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Chiefs vs Rams
Kansas City comes into this one off a 26-14 win at home over the Cardinals. While the Chiefs secured their 4th straight win since losing to New England, they failed to cover another spread as a massive 15.5-point favorite. For those that don’t know, KC started the season a perfect 7-0 ATS, but have now failed to cover 2 of their last 3. With the Patriots loss to the Titans the Chiefs are in the driver seat for the No. 1 seed, but they do hold a mere 1-game lead in their own division, as the Chargers are sitting at 7-2.
The Rams enter off a 36-31 win at home over the Seahawks, securing a season-sweep of their division rivals, but it was Seattle who got the cover as a 9.5-point underdog. Covering spreads hasn’t really been a specialty of the Rams, who are a mere 1-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. While the Chiefs still have a lot of work to do in their division, LA has the NFC West on lockdown given the Seahawks are the next best team at 4-5.
Free NFL Pick Against the Betting Spread & Predictions: Chiefs +3.5
I would have to lean towards grabbing the points with Kansas City in this one. I get the game being moved from Mexico City to LA is a bit of an advantage for the Rams, as they are now the host instead of playing on a neutral field. I didn’t agree with the Chiefs being a dog in Mexico City and see a ton of value with them getting more than a field goal.
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I think the biggest misconception here is that the Chiefs are the only team with a bad defense, when you could argue that the Rams are every bit as bad. Los Angeles went out an added all these big names to their defense and then proceeded to hold the Raiders to 13 points in Week 1 and shutout the Cardinals in Week 2. The public saw those two results as confirmation to their belief that the Rams were this great defensive team. Turns out it was more of just Oakland and Arizona being bad offensive teams.
They have not performed well when matched up against good offensive teams and while they have played some good offenses to this point, they haven’t seen anything like what this Chiefs offense brings to the table. The closest thing would be the Saints and New Orleans put up 35 on them and won by 10. Not to mention the Chiefs are expected to get back wide out Sammy Watkins.
While KC is adding a piece back to their offense, the Rams are going to have to learn to adjust to life without wide out Cooper Kupp, who was lost for the season in last week’s win over Seattle. While Kupp is third in receptions behind Cooks and Woods, he leads the team with 6 touchdowns and behind only Gurley in yards after the catch.
I just don’t think people understand how valuable he is to that offense. He’s like your Wes Welker of old Patriots’ offenses. He’s one guy you really had to account for and now that’s one more guy on defense focusing on stopping Todd Gurley.
I know the numbers aren’t great for the Chiefs defense, but they have been playing better as the season progresses. They have been getting a lot more production out of their young guys and have one of the best pass rushes in the game. Dee Ford is putting up ridiculous numbers and Justin Houston returned last week and made a big impact. Not to mention defensive end Chris Jones has a sack in 6 straight games. If they can put together a game-plan to simply slow Gurley down, they might just turn this thing into a blowout. Give me the Chiefs +3.5.