The Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon for an AFC Divisional Round showdown. Kickoff is set for 3:05 PM EST on January 12th at Arrowhead Stadium and the game will be nationally televised on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Chiefs listed as 9.5-point home favorites. The spread hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as Kansas City is currently available at -9.5. The total for this matchup is 51 points.
Chiefs vs Texans Game Odds & Betting Preview
The Texans edged out Buffalo at home during Wild Card Weekend, winning 22-19 in overtime to punch their ticket to Kansas City. Houston gave up 13 unanswered points in the first half but managed to turn things around over the final two quarters of regulation, outscoring the Bills 19-6 before kicking a game-winning field goal in OT. QB Deshaun Watson went 20/25 for 247 passing yards and a touchdown through the air while also racking up 55 rushing yards and a score on the ground. RB Carlos Hyde also chipped in, rumbling for 48 yards on 16 carries. WR DeAndre Hopkins led the way for the receiving corps, making six catches for 90 yards. As a whole, the Texans gained close to 400 total yards of offense and found the end zone twice in the victory.
Houston was pretty solid on the other side of the ball against the Bills, surrendering just a single touchdown despite allowing nearly 450 total yards of offense. The Texans did struggle to slow down Buffalo QB Josh Allen on the ground, as he averaged over ten yards per carry on nine rushing attempts.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs reeled off consecutive wins to close out the regular season 12-4 overall and first in the AFC West. Kansas City beat Los Angeles 31-21 at home their last time out to lock up a first round bye. QB Patrick Mahomes wasn’t at his best, going 16/25 for 174 passing yards and a touchdown through the air but also getting picked off once as well. RB Damien Williams torched the Chargers on the ground, racking up 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Tyreek Hill also contributed, hauling in four receptions for 60 yards. Overall, the Chiefs generated an average of 28 points and almost 400 total yards of offense per game during the regular season.
Kansas City was slightly above average in terms of scoring defense this year, yielding an average of less than 20 points per game. However, the Chiefs weren’t nearly as impressive defending against the run, getting lit up for an average of over 220 rushing yards per outing.
Free NFL Betting Predictions and Pick: OVER 51
A case could easily be made for avoiding this AFC showdown altogether, as both the spread and total look extremely efficient. While I do think that Kansas City should find a way to win this game outright, I really don’t think that they scream value at home in this matchup considering they are almost double-digit favorites. Therefore, the only play I would even remotely consider in this spot is the OVER on 51 total points scored. Both offenses enjoyed a ton of success during the regular season, averaging at least 24 points per outing. Neither defense was all that impressive either, yielding at least 19 points per game. The strength of each offense sets up well for each team as well, as the Chiefs could easily struggle to contain the mobile Deshaun Watson while Mahomes and Co. could have a field day through the air against a shaky Texans secondary.
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It is important to note that these two AFC rivals have been involved in their fair share of high scoring battles together in recent years, as the total has now gone OVER in two out of their last three meetings. The OVER has also hit in five out of Kansas City’s last eight outings at Arrowhead Stadium as well. Again, while I will likely avoid throwing darts against both the spread and total, the only play I’m even slightly considering on Sunday afternoon is the OVER on 51 total points scored.