This Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans in a matchup of two AFC division leaders. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at Arrowhead Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS.

Oddsmakers opened this line at Kansas City -7.5, but early money on Houston has this line down anywhere to -5 to -4 depending on where you shop. The total opened at 55.5. There’s a few books down the 55 and others who have moved a full point down to 54.5.

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Chiefs vs Texans Vegas Betting Predictions & Game Preview

Houston Texans (3-2, 3-2 ATS)

The Texans come into this one off a 53-32 win at home over the Atlanta Falcons, easily covering as a 4-point home favorite. Houston got a monster game from Deshaun Watson, who completed 28 of 33 for 426 yards and 5 scores. DeAndre Hopkins had 7 catches for 88 yards, but it was Will Fuller who dominated the Falcons with 14 receptions for 217 yards and 3 scores.

After that offensive explosion the Texans now rank in the Top 10 both in total yards (381.8 ypg, 9th) and scoring offense (26.2 ppg, T-9th). With that said, the offense has lacked consistency. The week before putting up the huge numbers against the Falcons, they scored just 10 points at home against the Panthers. They also had a game in Week 2 at home against the Jags where they managed only 13 points.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-1, 3-2 ATS)

The Chiefs suffered a massive upset at home on Sunday Night Football against the Colts. Kansas City lost 13-19 as a 10.5-point favorite. Finally putting an end to their record streak of 22 straight games with at least 26 points. It was just a tough day at the office for KC, who had a costly turnover deep in Indy territory, had a number of key guys go down with injuries and they were penalized 11 times for 125 yards.

Patrick Mahomes had an incredible TD pass to Byron Pringle early and finished with 321 yards, but was sacked 4 times and clearly was limited with his mobility after reaggravating an ankle injury.

Offense hasn’t been a concern with Mahomes and doesn’t figure to be any time soon, but the defense remains a major liability.

Matchup History

These two teams last played in 2017 at Houston. The Chiefs won that contest 42-34 as a 2-point road dog. Overall, Kansas City is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series.

NFL Betting Odds & Free Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs -4

My early lean would be to lay the points with the Chiefs at home. I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with last week’s loss at home to the Colts. If LeSean McCoy doesn’t fumble that ball deep in Indy territory midway through the 2nd quarter, KC was prime to take a 7-point lead and it would have been a lot different game with the Colts playing from behind.

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I would have loved to see the Chiefs run the table, but I believe losing a game like that will work in their favor. Great teams and great players respond to adversity in a big way and I think we see a much more focused Kansas City team on Sunday.

I know there’s a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for the Chiefs, but as long as No. 15 is behind center, it really doesn’t matter who is lined up around him. He’s going to make plays. There’s a good chance he gets back arguably the best weapon in the league outside of maybe Christian McCaffrey in wide out Tyreek Hill.

Also, one of the reasons the Colts had so much success against the Chiefs is their ability to play man defense. I don’t think the Texans pose near the threat on the defensive side of the ball. Back with Alex Smith, Reid’s offense always seemed to give Houston problems. Considering they went 22 straight games scoring at least 26 before the 13-point effort against the Colts, I’m confident they put up a big number in this one.

As for the defense and how will KC be able to stop Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense, I think they will look a lot better than they did against the Colts. Keep in mind Indy has a really good offensive line and was able to just run the ball at will. Texans aren’t near as good up front on the 0-line.

Another thing. Everyone is singing the praises of the Texans after their 21-point win over the Falcons, but keep in mind Atlanta actually had a 17-16 lead at the half and it was a 8-point game with less than 2 minutes to play.

Houston did finish with a 592 to 373 edge in total yards, but are 0-6 ATS under head coach Bill O’Brien after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. Texans are also 0-7 ATS under O’Brien in games vs teams who average 29 or more points/game. Chiefs are 9-3 ATS last 12 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 10-4 ATS last 14 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me KC -4!