This Friday the Cincinnati Bearcats will play host to the Memphis Tigers in Week 12 action. Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST at Nippert Stadium and will be televised on the CBS Sports Network. The Tigers are currently listed as a 7.5-point road favorite with the total at 57.5 points.

Memphis vs Cincinnati Vegas Spread Preview

The Tigers (6-4, 3-3 AAC) come in off a a 42-49 home loss to South Florida as a 3.5-point underdog. Memphis is now just 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS over their last 7 games.

The Bearcats (4-6, 1-5 ACC) enter off a an ugly 3-24 loss at UCF as a 10.5-point dog. Much like the Tigers, Cincinnati has been a bad team to back this season. The Bearcats are just 2-8 against the number on the year.

Memphis has won each of the last two meetings in the series. The Tigers won 53-46 at home last season and 41-14 at Cincinnati in 2014.

Free Pick & Betting Predictions: Cincinnati +7.5

Hard to feel confident backing either of these teams, given their recent ATS runs. However, I think if you are going to play this one, the value is with Cincinnati. I think we are going to see a desperate Bearcats team take the field in this one. Cincinnati needs to win out to become bowl eligible. On top of that, this is senior night, which typically brings out the best in bad teams.

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It’s also worth pointing out that the Bearcats were as bad as the 3-24 final score would suggest against UCF. Cincinnati actually outgained the Knights 327-305 on the game. They were done in by 3 turnovers and a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown.

More than anything, I don’t think Memphis should be laying over a touchdown on the road in this spot. The Tigers have been outgained in 5 of their last 7. The only exceptions coming against SMU and Tulane.

I know the Cincinnati offense hasn’t looked good at all of late. They have scored just 19 points in their last 3 games combined. However, I think this is a matchup where they can get something going. Memphis comes in ranked 92nd in the country in total defense, allowing 444.4 ypg. They have allowed 527.7 ypg in their last 3 and are giving up 492.3 ypg in conference play.

While the offense has struggled, Cincinnati’s defense has been playing well of late. The Bearcats have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 24 points or less.

With this being a nationally televised night game, I think it only adds more value to Cincinnati. Keep in mind they hosted Houston on a Thursday night earlier this season. While they lost the game 16-40, they led 16-12 in the 4th quarter of that game. Going back to 2006, the Bearcats are 54-15 at home.

I also think it’s worth noting that Memphis has nothing to play for here. The Tigers are out of the ACC West race and have already secured a bowl bid at 6-4. On top of that, they have a huge showdown in their regular season finale on deck against Houston next week.

We also find a strong system in play backing the Bearcats. Home dogs off 2 or more SU losses, who are a marginal losing team (40%-49%) are 29-14 (67%) ATS against a team with a winning record over the last 5 seasons.