The Air Force Falcons (4-7) host the Colorado State Rams (3-8) on Thursday afternoon in Mountain West Conference action. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EST at Falcon Stadium and the game will be broadcast on the CBS Sports Network.

Taking a look at the Week 13 college football odds, Air Force opened as a 14.5-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has shifted by half a point after early betting, as the Falcons are currently listed at -14. The total for the game is sitting at 58.5 points.

Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Air Force vs Colorado State

Colorado State lost their fifth game in a row last weekend, falling 29-24 to #23 overall Utah State. The Rams fought valiantly all game long and definitely gave themselves a shot at pulling off a massive upset in a game they were 31-point underdogs in. The two turning points in the game were definitely the pair of offensive turnovers that ended up in their end zone, which accounted for almost half of the points scored by the Aggies. Other than the two pick-sixes, QB Collin Hill was fantastic, throwing for 296 yards and two touchdowns. He had a ton of help from RB Izzy Matthews, who turned 20 carries into 100 rushing yards and a touchdown. The receiving duo of Olabisi Johnson and Preston Williams also had a monster game, combining for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Overall, Colorado StateĀ  is currently averaging just 23.2 points per game (110th overall).

The Rams have been awful on the other side of the ball all season long, allowing opponents to score 37.6 points per game (118th overall). They have been especially poor against the run, giving up an average of 203.7 yards per game on the ground (104th overall).

Air Force has now lost three out of their last four games after losing 35-27 on the road against Wyoming in Week 12. However, the Falcons did play quite well on offense for the most part, racking up over 400 total yards and controlling the ball for 38 minutes. QB Donald Hammond III only attempted nine passes, going five for nine with two interceptions. However, he did rush for almost 100 yards on the ground while also finding the end zone twice. RB Kadin Remsberg had a good game on the ground as well, turning 20 carries in to 128 yards. Cole Fagan also turned in a solid effort, rushing for 116 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. As a whole, Air Force is currently averaging 30.5 points per game (56th overall).

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are currently giving up an average of 26.4 points per game (60th overall). They have been pretty solid against the run, allowing opponents to average just 121.7 yards per game on the ground (20th overall).

NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Colorado State +14

While I have little doubt that Air Force will win this game at home, I think having to lay two full touchdowns to take the favorite in this matchup is a little steep. The Rams haven’t looked good this year but did put up a big fight against a ranked Utah State team in Week 12, losing by only five points in a game they were 30+ underdogs in. The Falcons also are very one-dimensional on offense, so Colorado State shouldn’t be left guessing too many times on the defensive side of the ball.

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The Falcons also haven’t fared very well in their last four games on Thursday, going 0-4 ATS. The underdog is also a perfect 4-0 ATS over the last four meetings between these two teams. Of course, there is some risk involved in this particular spot, as the Rams are a mediocre 4-7 ATS so far this season.

Colorado State has also played in some pretty close games this year, as they managed to stay within two touchdowns of Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Hawaii despite going 0-4 overall. The Falcons only beat UNLV by six points and lost to the same Aggies team the Rams played so well against last weekend by double-digits. I’m going to take the free points with the road underdog, as CSU should be able to grind out a cover in their final game of the season.