The New England Patriots (2-2) are set to host the Indianapolis Colts (1-3) on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 EST at Gillette Stadium and will be televised on both the NFL Network and Fox.
Taking a look at the Week 5 NFL odds, the books opened this thing up with the Patriots as a 10.5-point home favorite, but that’s been bet down at most books to New England -10. The total for this matchup is 53 points.
Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview: Colts vs Patriots
Indianapolis comes into this one off a crushing 34-37 overtime loss at home to the Houston Texans. The Colts made quite the comeback just to force the extra period, as they trailed 28-10 in the 2nd half. Indy scored first in overtime with a field goal, but the Texans matched it with a field goal of their own. The Colts had 4th & 4 on their own 43-yard line with just under 30 seconds to play. Instead of punting and playing for a tie, they failed to covert on 4th down and set up the Texans for the game-winning field goal as time expired.
New England avoided a third straight loss with an impressive 38-7 win at home over the previously unbeaten Miami Dolphins as a 6.5-point favorite. The Patriots put this one away early, as they led 24-0 at the half and held the Dolphins scoreless until the finale minutes of regulation. The win may have come at a price, as star tight end Rob Gronkowski had to leave the game in the 3rd quarter with an ankle injury.
This will be the first meeting between the two teams since 2015, which the Patriots won 34-27 as a 8.5-point road favorite. The last time these two played in New England was the 2014 AFC Championship Game, which the Patriots won convincingly 45-7 as a 7-point favorite.
Free NFL Betting Pick & Predictions: Colts +10
I would have to lean towards grabbing the points here with the Colts as a double-digit underdog. While Indianapolis has started out the season at 1-3, that record could easily be flip-flopped. They blew a 13-point lead in the 2nd half of a Week 1 loss at home to the Bengals. They had 1st & 10 at the Eagles 11-yard line down 4 with less than 2 minutes to play in a Week 3 loss to Philadelphia and then last week’s overtime loss to the Texans.
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I just think we are seeing New England getting way too much love off a big home win against the Dolphins. It’s almost like that victory over Miami has people completely forgetting about how bad this team looked the previous two weeks in losses to the Jaguars and Lions.
Not to mention the Patriots will likely be without their most important offensive weapon in Gronkowski. While he listed questionable on the injury report, it’s hard to imagine him playing with just 3 days to recover. It’s no secret that Brady and that New England offense doesn’t pack the same fire-power when Gronk is no tin the lineup. So while they will get back wideout Julian Edelman from his 4-game suspension, don’t be surprised if the Patriots offense struggles to get going.
I know the Colts are banged up themselves and will be without their top receiving threat in T.Y. Hilton, who has already been ruled out for this game with a hamstring injury. While that’s a big loss for Indianapolis, I still think Luck and this offense can move the football against this Patriots defense.
It’s also worth noting that the Colts have covered both of their road games in 2018. They won 21-9 as a 6-point dog at Washington in Week 2 and loss by just 4 as a 6.5-point dog at Philadelphia in Week 3. Indianapolis has also been a covering machine in this price range with a healthy Luck at quarterback. The Colts are 8-3 ATS when listed as a dog of 6.5 to 13.5 points when Luck is their starting QB.
We also find a strong system in play favoring a Indianapolis to cover, as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who have a losing record and are off a loss to a division opponent by 3-points or less are 71-37 (66%) ATS since 1983. At the same time, we have a great system in play favoring a fade of New England, as home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, who allowed 3 or fewer points in the 1st half of their last game and playing in a game where both teams have a points/game differential between +3 and -3 are just 19-46 (29%) ATS since 1983. Give me the Colts +10.