This Sunday the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) will host the Tennessee Titans (5-4) in a key AFC South matchup. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at Lucas Oil Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS.

Oddsmakers opened this thing up at the Colts -3, but it’s been bet down slightly, as Indy is currently sitting at -2 with a total of 49 points. Click here for a full list of the Week 11 NFL odds and for more links to our game previews.

Colts vs Titans Vegas Preview & Game Predictions

Tennessee comes into this one off an impressive 34-10 win at home over the Patriots as a 6.5-point underdog. The Titans defense caught a big break with Rob Gronkowski sitting out, but either way the defense deserves a lot of credit for hold Tom Brady and that New England offense to just 10 points. That’s now back-to-back wins for the Titans after they had lost 3 in a row.

The Colts also come into this one off a win, as they took down division rival Jacksonville 29-26 as a 3-point home favorite. Indy jumped out to an early 29-13 lead in the 2nd quarter, but went scoreless the final 30+ minutes and nearly blew the game. Either way, that’s now 3 straight wins for the Colts after that miserable 1-5 start.

Tennessee took full advantage of the Colts playing without Andrew Luck last year and swept the season series. Prior to that Indianapolis had won 11 straight, as the Titans previous win in the series was back in October of 2011. It was also their first win in Indy since 2007.

Free NFL Pick & Betting Predictions: Colts -2

My early lean here would be to lay the short number with the Colts at home. I just think there’s a lot of value here with Indianapolis laying a less than a field goal on their home field. I think a lot of that comes from the Titans getting some love after their 24-point win against the Patriots.

Click on the link for more free NFL picks from our experts on staff.

I’ll admit, I didn’t see the Titans beating New England last week, but they definitely caught a big break with Gronk not suiting up and I’m also not so sure the Patriots weren’t looking ahead to their bye week with all the guys they had banged up and off that big home win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

While that was just another game for New England, that was one the Titans desperately wanted to win for their new head coach, as Mike Vrabel made a name for himself as a player under Bill Belichick. Not to mention he won 3 Super Bowls as a teammate of Tom Brady.

I think we saw a similar type of effort from the Lions earlier this season with them playing for Matt Patricia. Detroit had an equally impressive win, beating the Patriots 26-10 at home. They are currently 3-6 and out of the playoff race.

I just don’t think this Titans team is as good as their 5-4 record and are in a prime letdown spot against a Colts team that I think is flying under the radar. Andrew Luck has proved all of his doubters wrong after returning from the injury that cost him all of last season. He’s simply on fire right now. The guy has thrown 3 touchdown passes in 6 six straight games. He’s completing a career-best 66.3% of his attempts and on pace to post his best QBR and overall quarterback rating of his career.

There’s also something else with Luck. He’s never lost to the Titans in his career. He’s a perfect 9-0 SU with a 7-1-1 ATS record. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record at home, where the Colts have won by an average of 13.0 ppg.

Going back to Tennessee being in a big letdown spot. Going back to 1983 there have been 42 times where there has been a road underdog off an upset win by 14 or more points who are basically .500 team (Win percent between 45%-55%). Only 10 of them have covered and the home favorite has won by an average of 11 points/game. Give me the Colts -2!