This Sunday the Indianapolis Colts will play host to the Tennessee Titans. Kickoff for this AFC South clash is set for 1:00 EST at Lucas Oil Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened up this game at Colts -3, but early money on the Titans has the line down to Indy -2.5. The total opened at 42 and is up to 43.5 at most books.
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Colts vs Titans Vegas Preview & Game Predictions
Tennessee Titans (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS)
The Titans returned from their bye week with a convincing 42-20 win and cover at home against the Jaguars. It’s continued a pretty impressive turnaround for Tennessee, who many people thought were down for after a 2-4 start to the season.
Titans have won 4 of 5 since and are just 1-game back of the Texans in the AFC South, who they still have two games against. The big turnaround for Tennessee has come after the team made the switch to Ryan Tannehill in place of Marcus Mariota at quarterback.
Indianapolis Colts (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS)
The Colts come into this one off a hard fought 20-17 loss at Houston on Thursday Night Football. Indy did cover as a 3.5-point dog, but that’s one they had to feel like they should have won. Colts led 17-10 midway thru the 3rd quarter, but the offense went stagnant and the Texans scored 10 unanswered to get the win.
Indianapolis is also just 1-game back of the Texans for the top spot in the AFC South. While they don’t have any more games left on the schedule with Houston, they did beat the Texans at home earlier in the season. Both the Indy and Houston are 3-1 in division games, which would be the tie-breaker, so this is definitely one they can’t afford to lose at home.
This will be the second meeting between these two this season. The Colts won the previous matchup 19-17 as a 3-point road dog way back in Week 2. Indy scored the game-winning TD in the final 5 minutes for the win. It was a defensive battle, as both teams finished with fewer than 300 total yards. Colts have now won 3 straight in the series.
Free NFL Pick & Betting Predictions: Colts -2.5
My early lean would be to lay the short number at home with the Colts. I just think there’s a ton of value here with Indianapolis laying less than a field goal at home. I think a big reason for the line is the fact that the Colts come in having lost 3 of 4 and the Titans have won 4 of 5.
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What most will fail to overlook is that Tennessee’s recent hot streak has come in a very favorable spot in their schedule. All 4 wins during their recent run have come at home and only one of those was against a team with a winning record. As for the Colts recent woes. You can’t knock them for losing at Houston on just 3-days of rest and the other two were a 24-26 loss at Pittsburgh and a 12-16 loss to the Dolphins. Starting QB Jacoby Brissett left in the 2nd quarter with a knee injury against the Steelers and Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning field goal in the final minutes. Indy didn’t have Brissett for the loss to Miami and backup Brian Hoyer threw 3 picks in the defeat.
What a lot of people overlook with the Colts is just how good they are on the defensive side of the ball. Indy has really done a 180 on that the last couple of years. Colts are only giving up 19.7 ppg on the season and that drops to a mere 17.8 ppg on the road.
One thing they have been really good at of late is stopping the run. Since giving up 188 yards rushing to the Raiders in Week 4, they have allowed just 76.7 ypg. If you can take away Derek Henry and the Titans running game, there’s really not much that offense can do to beat you. They just don’t have the weapons on the outside.
Colts are also 40-19 ATS last 59 times they have come off a SU loss, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have been matched up against a division opponent. Give me Indianapolis -2.5!