The Dallas Cowboys (2-5) are set to host the Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) in a NFC East showdown on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 EST at AT&T Stadium in Arlington and will be televised nationally on NBC. Taking a look at the Week 9 NFL odds, the Eagles are listed as a 2.5-point road favorite with the total set at 44.5 points.
Philadelphia will be returning from their bye looking to get back on track after suffering a 16-27 defeat at Carolina on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. Dallas lost another heartbreaker last week 12-13 at home to Cowboys as a 4-point underdog and have no dropped 5 straight since opening the season 2-0.
One of the Cowboys’ two wins came against the Eagles, as they won 20-10 as a 6.5-point dog at Philadelphia in Week 2. Despite both of these teams disappointing starts, they are still in the NFC East race, as the Giants sit a top the division at just 4-4.
Early Lean on Cowboys +2.5
With the Eagles coming off a bye and Dallas having yet to win a game without Romo under center, the oddsmakers are all but begging you to take Philadelphia laying less than a field goal. That raises a big red flag for me and I actually think the value here is with the Cowboys as a home dog.
I know Dallas has lost 5 straight, but they have been competitive in all 5 losses outside of a 6-30 defeat to the Patriots, which was actually closer than a lot of people expected. Their other 4 defeats have all come against quality teams in the Falcons, Saints, Giants and Eagles, all of which they could have won.
I know this series has been back and forth with the road team having won 5 straight, but it’s hard to ignore what the Cowboys did defensively in that earlier matchup this season. They held the Eagles to 7 yards rushing and just 219 yards through the air, while creating 3 turnovers. Dallas has got stronger defensively since that first meeting. Both defensive end Greg Hardry and linebacker Rolando McClain have returned from suspension, Randy Gregory also was out for that one with an injury.
Underdogs in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 ppg) are 168-105 (62%) ATS since 1983 after allowing 14 points or less in their last game.
I just don’t trust this Eagles team to be any different coming out of their bye week. Sam Bradford doesn’t look comfortable and I continue to think they would be better off with Mark Sanchez at quarterback. Defensively the Eagles have played well at times, but they do rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.3% of their attempts, which gives some hope for Matt Cassel providing something through the air.
I think we are going to see a low scoring game here (would also lean under 44.5) with Dallas controlling the ball with their stingy defense and running game. It might not be pretty, but I think the Cowboys get the win. Backing up my lean on Dallas is a strong system, which shows us that underdogs in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 ppg) are 168-105 (62%) ATS since 1983 after allowing 14 points or less in their last game.