This Sunday the Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Dallas Cowboys. It’s one of the most anticipated matchups of the week. Kickoff is set for 4:25 EST at Heinz Field and will be televised locally on FOX. Oddsmakers have the Steelers as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 49.5 points. Click here for more Week 10 NFL betting leans and game odds.

Cowboys vs Steelers Vegas Betting Preview

Dallas (7-1) comes into this one off a 35-10 blowout win on the road against the Browns. Easily covering as a mere 7-point favorite. The box score was as lopsided as the final. The Cowboys had a 423 to 222 edge in total yards and 29-13 advantage in first downs.

Pittsburgh (4-4) enters off a 14-21 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite. Not even the return of Ben Roethlisberger could snap the Steelers out of their funk. That’s now 3 straight losses for Pittsburgh after opening the season 4-1.

Free Pick & Point Spread Predictions: Steelers -2.5

My early lean here would have to be on Pittsburgh at home laying less than a field goal. I believe we are seeing some value here with the Steelers, due to all the love the Cowboys are getting. To no surprise, the betting public is all over Dallas in this one, which only makes me like the Steelers even more.

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Losing in Roethlisberger’s first game back is nothing new for the Steelers. Pittsburgh is just 2-6 in his career in the first game back from injury. I look for him to bounce back in a big way here against the Cowboys. Dallas’ defense has put up respectable numbers, but the schedule has also been favorable. They have already played the Bears, 49ers and Browns.

The perception with the Cowboys is this team isn’t going to ever lose another game. I’m not buying it and I think the pressure will start to get to them. Let’s also not forget they should have lost at home two weeks ago to the Eagles. They went into 4th quarter trailing 13-23 before eventually winning in overtime.

I think this is also a tough matchup for Dallas. Pittsburgh has been extremely hard to run on at home. The Steelers are allowing just 86 ypg against the run at home. That’s huge, as so much of what the Cowboys do depends on their ability to run the ball.

I also think this is the game where the injury to corner Morris Claiborne could haunt Dallas. I just don’t see how the Cowboys secondary is going to slow down Antonio Brown. I see Roethlisberger having a huge game here and I don’t think Prescott and the Cowboys can keep pace.

Whenever the Steelers have their backs against the wall, they typically respond. Since Tomlin took over, they are 9-1 ATS after losing 3 or more consecutive games. Winning in this spot by an average score of 27.9 to 18.2. They also bring their best against the top tier teams. Pittsburgh is 38-18 ATS in their last 56 against teams who have won 75% or more of their games.