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TODAY’S FREE PLAY

Free NCAAF Pick on Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +10.5

I like the value here with the Bulldogs catching double-digits. These two teams played earlier this season at Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs won that game 55-52 as a 3-point underdog. Based on the fact that WKU was a 3-point road favorite, this line should only be around 6.5.

It’s also worth pointing out these two teams played a close fought game last year. Western Kentucky won at home 41-38 as a 2.5-point underdog.

I just think we are seeing an inflated number given the results from last week. What you can’t overlook is the situation each team was facing. La Tech had already clinched the West prior to playing their game against Southern Miss. While the Bulldogs had nothing to play for, the Golden Eagles needed a win to become bowl eligible. Louisiana Tech simply had no business laying 15.5 points in that game.

As for the Hilltoppers 60-6 victory over Marshall, that was a must-win game for WKU. They went into last week tied with Old Dominion for 1st place in the East. A loss and the Hilltoppers wouldn’t even be playing in this game. That was also a very favorable matchup against a horrible Marshall team.

Just looking at the numbers, these are two very evenly matched teams. They played four common opponents. Both teams averaged exactly 46.0 ppg against the opposition. While WKU was better defensively, allowing just 21.3 ppg, La Tech wasn’t far behind at 25.5 ppg. Note that both defenses allowed exactly 5.3 yards/play in those 4 common games.

It’s also worth pointing out that even though the Bulldogs played Southern Miss last week, you can bet they spent the time leading up to that game preparing for Western Kentucky. They knew WKU wasn’t going to lose to Marshall and if they did they still had a week to prepare for ODU. Getting two weeks to prepare for an opponent this late in the season is huge. The best thing is we don’t even need the Bulldogs to win this game. All we have to have is for them to keep it within single-digits.

Losing to the Golden Eagles also puts Louisiana Tech in a great spot. The Bulldogs are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games off a loss as a favorite. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a SU defeat. Take Louisiana Tech!

**Profiting Over All NCAAF Selections Since 2012** Jimmy Boyd wants to help you *Collect From Your Bookie* on championship weekend with Saturday’s NCAAF All-Inclusive 3-Pack! The package is headlined by Jimmy’s 5* NCAAF Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR! You will also get his 4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator (11-2 L13 NCAAF Totals) & 4* NCAAF Afternoon ATS Shocker! All 3 plays are yours for $49.97! You are GUARANTEED TO PROFIT or you will get Sunday’s entire NFL card for FREE!

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