This Thursday the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) will host the Miami Dolphins (1-2). Kickoff for this Week 4 matchup is set for 8:30 EST at Paul Brown Stadium. The game will be televised on the NFL Network. Cincinnati is listed as a 7-point favorite with the total sitting at 44.5 points.
Dolphins vs Bengals Vegas Point Spread Preview
Miami avoided an 0-3 start with a 30-24 overtime win at home against the Browns. It was a closer game than many expect, as the Dolphins were a 9-point favorite.
Cincinnati suffered their second straight loss with a 17-29 home loss to the Broncos. They too failed to cover, as they were laying 3.5-points against the defending champs.
This will be the first meeting between these two teams since 2013, which Miami won 22-20 as a 3-point home dog. Overall, the Dolphins have won 3 straight in the series and 8 of the last 10.
Free Betting Pick & Odds Predictions: Dolphins +7
I think the value here is clearly on the Dolphins catching a touchdown. The perception of the Dolphins took a big hit last week when they needed overtime to beat the Browns at home. That performance will make it hard on the public to back Miami on short rest against the Bengals.
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After opening with a road win over the Jets, the Bengals have lost back-to-back games. They fell 16-24 at Pittsburgh in Week 2 and this past Sunday lost at home 17-29 to Denver. Those aren’t considered bad losses in the eyes of the public. Instead they see this as a bounce back spot for Cincinnati.
While that may be the case, I think the Bengals came into this season overvalued. They lost a lot of key weapons offensively and the defense has been on the decline since Mike Zimmer left town.
Miami didn’t play their best game against the Browns, but they could have easily covered. The Dolphins had a 24-13 lead in the 4th quarter. They also spotted Cleveland 7-points with an interception that was returned for a touchdown.
The other thing to keep in mind with Miami and their 1-2 start, is they too have two quality losses. The Dolphins arguably should have won at Seattle in the opener and played New England tough on the road.
I think these two teams are a lot more evenly matched than this spread would indicate. Miami is averaging 21.3 ppg offensively against teams that are only giving up 18.4 ppg. Cincinnati on the other hand is only averaging 18.7 ppg against teams that are allowing 22.3 ppg.
The big key here for me is the Dolphins ability to move the ball through the air on offense. Ryan Tannehil is thriving under new head coach Adam Gase. He’s completing 64.6% of his attempts for just under 285 yards/game. He’s also averaging a healthy 7.9 yards/pass attempt.
Cincinnati’s secondary was exposed last week by Trevor Siemian and the Broncos. Siemian completed 23 of 35 attempts for 312 yards and 4 touchdowns. Averaging 8.91 yards/pass attempt. Keep in mind that was against a desperate Bengals defense who were fighting to avoid a 1-2 start. Not to mention it came on their home field.
It’s hard to put away a strong passing team like the Dolphins and we got a system in play to back it up. Road teams in a game involving two strong passing teams (7.3 or more yards/pass attempt), who averaged 7 or more yards/attempt in their last game are 33-11 (75%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons.
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