The Miami Dolphins (5-6) host the Buffalo Bills (4-7) on Sunday in an AFC East showdown. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on December 2nd at Hard Rock Stadium and the game will be broadcast on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Dolphins listed as 6-point home favorites. That line has moved by over a point after early betting, as Miami is currently available at -4.5. The total for this matchup is 40.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 13 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Dolphins vs Bills Vegas Odds & Game Preview
Buffalo won their second consecutive game last weekend, beating Jacksonville 24-21 on the road to improve to 4-7 on the season overall. The Bills scored 14 unanswered points in the first quarter to help set the tone for the rest of the game, as things got chippy between the two teams quite quickly. DE Shaq Lawson got in a brawl with Jags RB Leonard Fournette, but avoided suspension after getting handed a $33,425 fine. QB Josh Allen was fantastic against the Jaguars, throwing for 160 yards and at touchdown while also rushing for 99 yards and a touchdown on the ground. WR Robert Foster had a big game as well, turning two catches into 94 yards and a touchdown. After a big outing back in Week 11 RB LeSean McCoy was quite last weekend, rushing for only 46 yards on 17 carries. He will try and turn things around on Sunday against a Dolphins run defense that is currently giving up 139.8 yards per game. Overall, Buffalo is currently averaging just 14.6 points per game (31st overall) on 273.9 yards of total offense.
The Bills have been fairly average defensively through their first eleven games, allowing opponents to score 24.7 points per game (17th overall) on 305.0 total yards of offense. However, they have been outstanding against the pass, as they are currently holding opponents to just 193.7 yards per game through the air – first overall in the NFL.
Miami has now lost four out of their last five games after a tough 27-24 road loss to Indianapolis last weekend. The Dolphins really gave the Colts a tough test, refusing to go away despite trailing several times throughout the game. QB Ryan Tannehill played well, throwing for 204 yards and two touchdowns on the afternoon. WR Leonte Caroo had a big game through the air, scoring a touchdown on a beautiful 74-yard passing play. RB Kenyan Drake also had a big game, scoring a touchdown on the ground while also adding another on a lengthy reception out of the backfield. As a whole, Miami is currently averaging 20.3 points per game (25th overall) on 313.6 yards of total offense.
The Dolphins have been well below average on the other side of the ball so far this season, surrendering 25.7 points per game to opponents (22nd overall) on 398.0 yards of total offense. They have looked especially poor against the run, allowing opponents to rack up an average of 139.8 yards per game on the ground (29th overall).
Free NFL Betting Prediction: Buffalo +4.5
This is shaping up to be one of the uglier games on the schedule here in Week 13, as both of these teams aren’t exactly riveting to watch. However, I still think there is some value to be found with Buffalo in this particular spot, as they have been playing quite well since getting embarrassed 41-9 by Chicago back in Week 10. They have certainly been the much better team on defense, as the Dolphins have now given up 58 total points in their last two games combined.
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The Bills are a rock-solid 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on grass. They are also a very impressive 7-3 ATS over their last ten meetings with Miami overall. The Dolphins are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against opponents with a losing record. They have also lost seven out of their last ten meetings with Buffalo outright.
I honestly think this game could go either way, as it has all the makings of low-scoring game decided by a field goal in the final minute. Getting four and a half points in this matchup seems like a good spot to be in, even in spite of the fact that the spread has shrunk substantially since Monday afternoon. I think taking the Bills at anything above +3.5 is a great value, as they could easily win this game outright. McCoy should have a big day on the ground and really help Buffalo control time of possession. I’ll take the free points and roll with the road underdog to cover.