This Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) will host the Miami Dolphins (6-8). Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at Arrowhead Stadium on Christmas Eve and will be televised locally on CBS.

Oddsmakers currently have the Chiefs listed as a 10-point home favorite with the total set at 44 points. Check out our Week 16 NFL odds page for a full betting schedule and for more links to our game previews.

Dolphins vs Chiefs Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview

Miami comes into this one off a 16-24 loss at Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog. It was a disappointing showing from the Dolphins, who were coming off that huge win against the Patriots the week before. The loss all but ended any hope of Miami sneaking into the playoffs as a Wild Card in the AFC.

Kansas City on the other hand is coming in off an impressive 30-13 win at home over the Chargers on Saturday as a slim 1-point favorite. That’s now back-to-back huge victories for the Chiefs following their dreadful 1-6 stretch. With the win, Kansas City took complete control of the AFC West. While they are just 1-game up in the standings on Los Angeles, they own the tie-breaker. The Chiefs can secure the division with one more win or one more Chargers loss over the final two weeks.

NFL Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Chiefs -10

This might seem like a bit of an overreaction with Kansas City, but I would have to lean towards laying the points with the Chiefs at home if I was going to play this one. This biggest reason that I like KC in this spot is I’m not expecting Miami to be the least bit interested in playing this game. It’s been a disappointing season for the Dolphins, who came in with big expectations after going 10-6 last year and making the playoffs.

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Prior to last week’s loss to the Bills, this team was in full on playoff mode, needing to win out to just have a chance. Now there’s nothing left to play for but pride. That’s a tough thing to overcome and keep in mind this is a Dolphins team that has had a number of games this season where they didn’t show up to play. I think this team will be more interested in getting this game out of the way and getting on a plane back home so they can spend Christmas with their families.

While it won’t be as electric as it was Saturday night under the lights in prime time against a division rival, I’m expecting another rowdy crowd at Arrowhead on Sunday. The holidays aren’t going to keep the KC faithful from showing up and I would expect little to no Dolphin’s fans to make the trip. Adding to this is the conditions aren’t going to be ideal, as the high for next Sunday are expected to be below freezing. I think the cold is another factor that is going deter the Dolphins from playing well.

As for the Chiefs, this team is riding a huge wave of momentum and given what’s at stake I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas. Kansas City has a chance here to take matters into their own hands and clinch the AFC West with a win. The last thing this team wants to do is lose here and have to worry about going to Denver in Week 17 and potentially needing a win to get in. Keep in mind that with a win the Chiefs would be able to treat Week 17 like a bye before the playoffs.

The other big thing here is Kansas City is playing with some momentum, as they have looked a lot more like the team that started out 5-0 the past two weeks than the one that went 1-6 over a 7-game stretch. The offense has really came alive down the stretch, as they come in averaging 29 ppg over their last 3, and will be facing a Dolphins defense that has allowed 27.2 ppg on the road. It’s also worth noting that Miami is only averaging 12.4 ppg on the road, as they have been outscored by nearly 15 points/game away from home this season. I think this has the potential to be one of the biggest blowouts in Week 16. Give me the Chiefs -10!