The Atlanta Falcons will look to avoid a letdown in Week 6 as they host the Miami Dolphins. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, October 15 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game will be available on CBS in local markets.

Oddsmakers have the Falcons as 12.5-point favorites at home. That line has moved up after Atlanta opened as 11.5-point favorites. The over/under for the game is set at 47 points. Click here for a full list of the Week 6 betting odds and links to more game previews.

Dolphins vs Falcons Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions

The Dolphins may consider themselves lucky to be 2-2 at this point in the season. Miami is last in the NFL in points per game, as Jay Cutler has not had a fruitful return to the NFL. Cutler is averaging just 156 passing yards per game, has as many touchdowns as interceptions, and has been sacked 10 times in four games. The Dolphins haven’t been able to run the ball with Jay Ajayi with any consistency this year either.

Miami’s defense, however, has managed to save them. The Dolphins have allowed no more than 20 points in any game this season. In games against the Chargers and Titans, that was enough to win. 

The Falcons, on the other hand, have a top-10 offense. Matt Ryan hasn’t quite been at his best, as he also has as many touchdowns as interceptions. However, the Falcons are running the ball with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, which has helped Atlanta survive a modest start from Ryan, going 3-1 prior to last week’s bye.

Free NFL Pick Against the Spread: Miami +12.5

This is way too many points to cover in an NFL game. To be fair, the Dolphins have lost two games by 14 or more points, so it’s possible they get blown out. But I’ll take my chances with Miami’s defense managing to keep this game close.

With a bye last week, the Falcons have had two weeks to mull over their loss to the Bills and fix a couple things that went wrong in that game. However, that game showed that Atlanta’s offense can be vulnerable against quality defenses. The Dolphins have proven over their first four games that they have a quality defense, and so I question whether the Falcons will be able to get on track offensively.

Click on the link for more free NFL betting predictions from our experts on staff.

First and foremost, the Falcons will need to clean up the turnovers that were their downfall last time out against the Bills. Health could also be an issue for the Falcons. Wide receivers Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Justin Hardy are all listed as questionable. If one or more of those receivers is missing or limited on Sunday, it could have a negative impact on the Atlanta offense.

The Falcons have a strong rushing attack they can lean on if necessary. But the Dolphins have done a good job all season of limiting the running game of opposing teams with a strong group of linebackers, setting up Cameron Wake and Andre Branch to get after the quarterback. If Miami can continue to stop the run, the Falcons could struggle to put drives together or create big plays down the field.

Of course, if the Dolphins have any hope of winning this game, they’ll need a much better performance out of Cutler and the rest of the offense, including an offensive line that has been a huge disappointment this season. But with Miami’s defense, I’m not comfortable picking the Falcons to cover a 12.5-point spread.