The Houston Texans (4-3) will host Miami Dolphins (4-3) on Thursday Night Football to get Week 8 of the NFL underway. Kickoff is set for 8:20 EST at NRG Stadium and will be televised on both the NFL Network and FOX.

Taking a look at the Week 8 NFL odds, the books have the Texans currently listed as a 7.5-point home favorite with the total set for 44 points.

Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview: Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins come into this one off a 32-21 home loss to the Detroit Lions as a 3-point dog. Brock Osweiler made his second straight start for the injured Ryan Tannehill. It wasn’t his fault they lost, as he was 22 of 31 for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns. The defense simply had no answer for the Lions, who put up 457 total yards and outgained Miami by 135 yards.

Houston continued it’s impressive turnaround with a 20-7 road win over the Jacksonville Jaguars as a 3.5-point underdog. It wasn’t their best offensive showing, as they managed just 272 yards, but the defense limited the Jaguars to 259 and forced 3 turnovers. The Texans have now won 4 straight after their 0-3 start, which included a loss at home to the Giants.

Free NFL Betting Predictions & Game Pick: OVER 44

If I had to take a side, I would probably roll the dice with Houston, but I just don’t trust the Texans enough to lay that kind of a number. As has been the case just about every week, I think the best value for the Thursday night game is on the OVER.

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I just think the perception here is that with the way Houston’s offense is struggling and the Dolphins missing several key players on offense, these two will struggle to put points on the board. That may be the case, but time after time we see a higher-scoring game than expected on Thursday Night Football.

Last week, people thought the same thing with the Broncos/Cardinals matchup, which had a total of just 41.5. The game finished with 55 points and the OVER cashed midway thru the 3rd quarter. The OVER is now 5-1 this season with teams playing on short rest on Thursday. I’ve said it time and time before, 3-days isn’t enough for players to recover, especially defensive guys, as so much of how well a defense plays depends on effort and energy.

I know Houston has a really strong defense and Miami will be starting Brock Osweiler with two of it’s top receivers in Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills both sidelined. The thing is, as bad as Owseiler has been in the past, he’s gone 54 of 80 (67.5%) for 654 yards and a 6-2 TD-INT ratio in his three appearances (2 starts). The Texans are well aware of the injuries and very familiar with Osweiler (played 15 games for Houston in 2016). Coming off that huge road win over Jaguars and just 3 days off, it wouldn’t surprise me if they struggle to give this Miami team their full attention.

On the flip side of this, I think we could Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense go off for a big number in this one. In Miami’s game last week against the Lions,┬áDetroit scored on 7 of their 9 offensive possessions and one of those was them just kneeling to run out he clock at the end of the game. Not to mention they let the Lions of all teams, rush for 248 yards. Detroit’s highest rushing total in 21 years. The week before that they only forced the Bears to punt twice and Mitch Trubisky went 22 of 31 for 316 yards and 3 scores and Chicago had 164 yards on the ground.

The last 6 times the Dolphins allowed more than 450 total yards (gave up 457 to the Lions), the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in their next game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in Miami’s last 7 after giving up 25 or more points in each of their previous two games and 20-8 in the Texans’ last 28 home games after two straight games that finished under the total. Give me the OVER 44.