This Sunday the Cleveland Browns (2-6) will host the Atlanta Falcons (4-4). Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at FirstEnergy Stadium and will be televised locally on FOX.

Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Falcons as a 3.5-point road favorite, but the line has jumped to Atlanta -6. The total is sitting at 50.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 10 NFL betting schedule and for more links to our game previews.

Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview: Falcons vs Browns

Atlanta made quite the statement off their bye week, as they went into Washington and beat the Redskins 38-14 as a 1.5-point underdog. Matt Ryan threw for 350 yards and 4 scores, while Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith combined for 148 yards and a score on 23 carries. That’s now 3 straight wins for the Falcon, who have pulled to 4-4 after that miserable 1-4 start.

The Browns come into this one off a 37-21 home loss to the Chiefs, which was their first game after firing head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Like a lot of teams before them, Cleveland just couldn’t keep pace offensively with Kansas City. That’s now 4 straight losses for the Browns and those hopes of a surprise playoff run are all but gone.

Free NFL Betting Pick & Predictions: Browns +6

My early lean here would be to grab the points with Cleveland at home. I just think we are getting a really good price here on the Browns against a Falcons team that I feel is getting a little too much love after winning their last three games.

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I know the Browns failed to cover at home as a big dog against the Chiefs in the first game under interim head coach Greg Williams, but that was just bad luck that they had to play Kansas City in that spot. The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and are doing things offensively that we haven’t seen.

I liked the decision to fire Jackson and I was impressed with how well the offense played in the first game under new OC Freddie Kitchens. Unlike Haley before him, he made a point to get Duke Johnson the ball and he finished with 9 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns out of the backfield. Mayfield also played well, throwing for 292 yards and 2 scores, while completing 69% of his attempts (best since taking over as a starter).

I know the Falcons defense is coming off back-to-back games where they didn’t allow allow a lot of points, but it came against two bad offensive teams in the Giants and Redskins. ¬†Atlanta is still without two of their best defensive players in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. They might also be without corner Robert Alford, who is questionable. I think this is still one of the worst units in the league and will struggle to contain Cleveland on the road.

As for the Falcons offense, there’s a lot of reasons to be concerned with them. Rookie wide out Calvin Ridley is questionable to play with a concussion. Both starting guards are on IR and center Alex Mack is playing at less than 100%. Kicker Matt Bryant is also questionable, which could definitely be a big factor if he can’t go.

More than anything, I really like this spot for the Browns. Sitting at 2-6-1, they aren’t out of it in the AFC, but need to win this one at home to keep those slim hopes alive. I expect a big time effort here and while they might not win the game, all we need is for them to keep it within a touchdown. Give me the Browns +6.