The Atlanta Falcons host the Dallas Cowboys this weekend in a battle between two NFC teams with identical 4-5 records. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on November 18th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Falcons listed as 3.5-point home favorites. That line has remained unchanged after early betting, as Atlanta is currently available at -3.5. The total for this matchup is 48 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 11 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Falcons vs Cowboys Vegas Odds & Game Preview
Dallas improved to 4-5 overall on the season last weekend after an impressive 27-20 road win over Philadelphia. The Cowboys knew they were in pretty much a must win situation and delivered a huge effort to knock off the defending Super Bowl champs. Newly acquired WR Amari Cooper was fantastic, catching six passes for 75 yards – he now has racked up 133 yards and a touchdown over his first two games with Dallas. QB Dak Prescott has shown some signs of resurgence as well, throwing for 270 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles. Prescott has now passed for 1,930 yards and 11 touchdowns in nine games. RB Ezekiel Elliott leads the way for a ground game that is currently averaging 133.4 yards per contest, posting 831 yards and four touchdowns so far this year. As a whole, the offense is currently averaging 20.1 points per game (24th overall) on 327.4 total yards.
Things have generally looked pretty good on the other side of the ball, as the Cowboys are currently giving up an average of only 19.0 points per game (3rd overall). They have been impressive against both the run and the pass so for this season, ranking 8th overall in both categories.
Atlanta dropped back below .500 last weekend after a tough 28-16 loss to Cleveland. The Falcons had been playing extremely well, winning three consecutive games to erase a brutal 1-4 start. QB Matt Ryan has played quite well as of late, throwing seven touchdowns and just one interception over this last three games. Ryan has now passed for 3,015 yards and 21 touchdowns in just nine games. WR Julio Jones seems to be finding his groove after a slow start, as he has now topped 100 yards receiving in each of his last four games while also finding the end zone twice. RB Tevin Coleman continues to lead the way on the ground for Atlanta, as Devonta Freeman has been forced to miss most of the season due to foot and groin injuries. Overall, the offense is currently averaging 27.1 points per game (8th overall) on 408.9 total yards.
The Falcons haven’t looked all that great defensively, as they are currently giving up 28.2 points per game (29th overall) on 414.3 yards of total offense. They have struggled the most against the pass, as opponents are averaging a ridiculous 294.4 yards per game through the air (30th overall).
Free NFL Betting Prediction: Atlanta -3.5
Both of these teams are in desperate need of a win to stay in their respective divisional playoff races. This is actually a pretty interesting spot, as the Cowboys have really struggled on offense while Atlanta has been one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league. While Amari Cooper has certainly helped, I’m still not sure if Dallas can find a way to cover the spread in this matchup. The Falcons had won three straight games and will likely be pretty fired up after getting embarrassed on the ground by Nick Chubb in Week 11.
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Atlanta is a very solid 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the month of November. The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams, which certainly bodes well for the Falcons as well. Dallas is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games following a win. They are also only 1-4 overall in their last five road games.
Another important factor to consider is how well Atlanta has done against the spread when playing the Cowboys as of late – they are an impressive 5-2 ATS over their last seven games. I am expecting that trend to continue, especially since the Falcons are playing at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this weekend where they are 3-2 this season. While this game might stay close for 2-3 quarters, I think Ryan and Co. find a way to win this one by 4-7 points. I’ll lay the 3.5 points and take the home favorite to cover.