The Atlanta Falcons will look to extract some small measure of revenge against the New England Patriots this weekend in their first meeting following Super Bowl LI. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, October 22 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The game will be nationally televised on NBC.
Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 3.5-point home favorites. Early betting has moved the line only slighty, as New England opened at -3. The over/under for the game is 55 points which is far and away the highest total on the board here in Week 7. Click here for a full list of the Week 7 betting odds and links to more game previews.
Falcons vs Patriots Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions
The Falcons have looked terrible over the past several weeks, losing two consecutive games to drop to 3-2 after a hot start to the season. To make matters worse, the defeats were at the hands of the visiting Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins – who aren’t exactly NFL powerhouses. Atlanta’s 3-2 record is also somewhat misleading, as they could easily be 1-4. The Falcons should have likely lost against the Bears in Week 1 and definitely would have lost to the Lions without a bizarre sequence of events leading up to a ten second run-off to close out the fourth quarter. In any event, the Falcons are still a little to pass-heavy on offense, although some of that imbalance has largely been due to game flow.
New England has also had a somewhat mediocre start to the 2017-18 season in spite of their 4-2 record. The Patriots barely scraped by the New York Jets last weekend, winning 24-17 after a marginal call took a late NYJ touchdown off the scoreboard. New England is also currently almost dead-last in every defensive category, allowing opponents to average a ridiculous 440.7 total yards per game. Without Tom Brady and Co. averaging 412.0 total yards per game to balance things out a little bit, New England would be in big trouble. Brady has yet to miss a beat, even after a series of injuries to prime offensive weapons like Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots have also continued to run the ball effectively with their three-pronged backfield featuring Dion Lewis, Mike Gillislee, and James White – the trio is averaging over 100 yards per game combined.
Free NFL Betting Prediction: Patriots -3.5
I wrote a preview a couple weeks ago in which I mentioned tending to avoid betting against Aaron Rodgers in big games, especially when he’s playing against the Cowboys. The same can be said about betting against Brady and Belichick in “statement” games. I know New England hasn’t looked great to start the year, but I’m still not ready to abandon ship – especially this week with the Pats playing at home in a nationally televised game in a Super Bowl re-match. I think this one will likely stay close all game and be thoroughly entertaining for four quarters.
Click on the link for more free NFL betting predictions from our experts on staff.
The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against New England and just 4-10 ATS following their last 14 games after a loss. The Patriots are an impressive 18-7 ATS over their last 25 games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with winning records. Atlanta has impressive defensive statistics, especially in total defense where they currently rank 3rd overall in the entire NFL. However, they have been somewhat average against the pass and Brady is capable of exploiting this secondary – he certainly showed as much last February in Houston. If Atlanta can’t be trusted at home against Buffalo and Miami, I certainly don’t have a lot of faith in them to win on the road against the Patriots. Look for New England to improve to 5-2 while winning by 5+ points.