This Friday the No. 16 ranked UCF Knights (2-0) will host the Florida Atlantic Owls (2-1). Kickoff is set for 7:00 EST at Spectrum Stadium and will be televised on ESPN.
Oddsmakers currently have the Knights listed as a 13.5-point home favorite with the total set at 67 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 4 betting odds and for more links to our game previews.
Florida Atlantic vs Central Florida Vegas Game Odds & Preview
The Owls come into this one off a comfortable 49-28 home win over Bethune-Cookman, as they took control early and led 29-0 at the end of the 1st quarter and 36-14 at the half. However, it wasn’t a big enough margin of victory to cover the spread, as FAU went off as a massive 40.5-point favorite. That drops the Owls to 0-3 ATS, which matches the number of games they failed to cover in 2017 (10-3-1 ATS).
The Knights were suppose to have their first real test of 2018 this past Saturday at North Carolina, but the game was canceled because of Hurricane Florence. UCF opened with a 56-17 win and cover at UConn as 23.5-point favorite, but failed to cover as a huge 52-point favorite in their 38-0 win over South Carolina State in Week 2.
Free College Football Pick & Betting Predictions: FAU +13.5
I would have to lean towards grabbing the points with the Owls in this one. The early indication here is the public is all over UCF and I think it’s worth waiting to see if this line doesn’t climb up to at least 14. I know the Knights have looked great early on and will have a massive edge in rest with them having not played since Sept. 8th and FAU on just 5 days of rest. However, I just think this is too many points.
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I think there’s a couple reasons we are seeing FAU undervalued in this matchup. The first being that ugly 63-14 Week 1 loss at Oklahoma, where they went off as a mere 21-point dog. The other being the fact that they haven’t covered a single contest. Clearly this team was getting too much respect against the Sooners, but keep in mind they lost 42-19 and 31-14 in their first two games last year against Navy and Wisconsin.
I just have a lot of trust in Lane Kiffin and the Owls offense to score enough here to keep this game competitive. After struggling to get anything going against Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic has amassed over 500 total yards in each of their last two games against Air Force and Bethune-Cookman. What I like is how they took advantage of what the defense gave them. They had just 54 rushing yards against the Falcons, but Chris Robinson threw for 471 yards. Against Bethune-Cookman they rushed for 376 yards, while only throwing for 183.
UCF’s defense looks great through the first two games, but a lot of that has to do with who they played. UConn is one of the worst FBS teams in the country. The Huskies followed up that ugly loss to the Knights by losing 62-7 at Boise State, who didn’t look nearly as good this past week in their blowout loss to Oklahoma State and needed a late score to knock off Rhode Island 56-49 at home.
At the same time, while they haven’t allowed a ton of points, the run defense has been a concern. UCF gave up 220 yards rushing to UConn and 177 last time out to South Carolina State.
As for UCF’s offense, they are going to score some points behind talented junior quarterback McKenzie Milton, but once again the big numbers through the first two games are more a result of who they played. I think FAU can make some stops and it wouldn’t shock me of the Owls pulled off the upset. Give me Florida Atlantic +13.5.