The #8 overall Florida Gators (9-2) host the Florida State Seminoles (6-5) this weekend for the Sunshine Showdown from Gainesville. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM EST on November 30th at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and the game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

Taking a look at the Week 14 college football odds, Florida opened as a 17-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread has increased by a full point after early betting, as the Gators are currently available at -18. The total for the game is sitting at 54.5 points.

Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Florida vs Florida State

Florida State won their second game in a row last weekend, crushing Alabama State 49-12 at home to get back above the .500 mark on the season. The Seminoles scored three touchdowns in the first half and never looked back, giving up only six points over the final two quarters of the game. QB James Blackman went 13/22 for 246 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air while also adding 53 rushing yards on just four carries. Khalan Laborn had a big game on the ground, racking up 55 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Tre’Shaun Harrison led the way for the receiving corps, hauling in three receptions for 94 yards and a score. As a whole, Florida State gained well over 500 total yards and found the end zone six times on offense in the blowout victory.

The Seminoles had a solid outing on the other side of the ball against Alabama State, giving up under 350 total yards of offense and just a single touchdown. Florida State was especially strong defending against the run, holding the Hornets to only 80 net rushing yards on the ground.

Florida has now won nine out of their first eleven games on the season after beating Missouri 23-6 on the road last weekend to improve to 9-2 overall. The Gators had a 6-3 lead at the start of the third quarter before really turning it on over the final 30 minutes of the game, outscoring the Tigers 17-3 down the stretch en route to a double-digit victory. QB Kyle Trask went 23/35 for 282 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air while RB Emory Jones averaged 6.5 yards per carry on the ground. Van Jefferson also chipped in, making six catches for 82 receiving yards. Overall, Florida generated close to 400 total yards of offense and scored two touchdowns in the win.

The Gators were fantastic defensively against Missouri, surrendering just over 250 total yards of offense and two field goals. Florida completely shut down the Tigers on the ground, allowing only 52 rushing yards the entire game.

NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: UNDER 54.5

While I didn’t mind the Gators against the spread when they opened at -17 earlier in the week, the number has been bet up and a lot of the previous value is no longer there. Of course, I’d probably still roll with Florida at home on Saturday evening if forced to pick a side. The Seminoles have really struggled against the spread on the road this season, going just 1-4-1 ATS through their first six games away from Doak Campbell Stadium. Even so, I’d much rather take my chances with the UNDER on 54.5 total points scored, as this all-Florida matchup could easily turn into a defensive battle. The Gators defense has really turned it up a notch over the past couple of weeks, giving up just six total points over their last two outings combined.

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It is also important to note that Florida and Florida State have been involved in plenty of low-scoring battles together over the past decade or so, as the total has now gone UNDER in seven out of the last ten meetings between these two state rivals. The UNDER has also come through in six out of Florida State’s last eight games overall and in six out of their last seven trips to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium as well. On the other side, the UNDER has hit in four consecutive games that the Gators have played at home. I’m going to avoid throwing darts against an efficient looking spread in favor of the UNDER on 54.5 total points scored in the 2019 edition of the Sunshine Showdown.