The #15 LSU Tigers travel to Gainsville this weekend to take on the #22 Florida Gators in a pivotal SEC clash. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EST at Ben Hill Griffen Stadium and the game will be available on CBS.
Taking a look at the Week 6 college football odds, LSU opened as a 3-point road favorite earlier this week. That line has not moved at all after early betting, as the Gators are currently listed at -3. The total for the game is sitting at 44 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Florida vs LSU
LSU improved to 5-0 on the season last weekend after a dominating 45-16 win against Mississippi last weekend. QB Joe Burrow was outstanding, racking up 388 total yards of offense to go along with four touchdowns. Burrow has now thrown for 1,023 yards and six touchdowns so far this season. He clearly has a ton of chemistry with WR Justin Jefferson, as Jefferson scored a 65 yard touchdown against Mississippi and has already racked up 18 receptions. On the ground, Nick Brossette and Clyde Edwards- Helaire have combined for over 750 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns. As a whole, the Tigers are currently averaging 33.8 points per game on 396.6 yards of total offense.
The Tigers have been fantastic defensively, as they are currently giving up an average of just 15.0 points per game (12th) on 333.8 total yards (32nd). They are only allowing 103.0 yards per game on the ground (16th) but have been a bit more susceptible to the pass, surrendering 230.8 yards per game through the air (79th).
Florida moved to 4-1 last weekend after a tough 13-6 road victory over Mississippi State. QB Feleipe Franks played fairly well, passing for 219 yards despite being unable to find the end zone. Franks has thrown for 961 yards and 12 touchdowns so far this season. As a whole, the Gators offense is currently averaging 35.4 points per game on 377.8 total yards.
The big story for the Gators against Mississippi State was the play of their defense, as they managed to hold the Bulldogs to just 202 total yards and two field goals. They have certainly looked strong all year long, limiting opponents to an average of just 14.0 points per game (9th) on 312.6 yards of total offense.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: LSU -3
I know that LSU is playing a Top 25 ranked opponent on the road on Saturday but I`m still somewhat surprised that the spread is this small. Both teams have looked great to start the year but the Tigers have had a far tougher schedule that has included wins over both Miami and Auburn. While the Gators really made a statement last weekend against #23 (at that time) Mississippi State, the rest of their schedule has been fairly pedestrian. It is also really important to note that Florida lost at home to #13 Kentucky by eleven points back in Week 2. Although LSU and Florida look strikingly similar when going over their offensive/defensive rankings, LSU has posted the same numbers against much more solid opponents.
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LSU is a very impressive 8-0 ATS over their past eight games against SEC teams. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the road and 4-0 ATS over their last four games on the road against home teams that have a winning record. Florida is just 1-5 ATS over their past six games as a home underdog and 2-5 ATS over their past seven games against teams from the SEC.
In what is expected to be a low-scoring battle between two SEC rivals, it always helps to look for important intangibles as well. LSU has already forced 10 turnovers so far this season – their current turnover margin is a very solid +7. Florida has also done well in this department, as they have forced 14 turnovers and have a margin of +9. However, LSU has only lost three fumbles so far and has yet to throw an interception. At least some of the Gators early season success has to be attributed to their schedule. They barely scraped by Mississippi State and lost badly to Kentucky at home. The Tigers may be Florida’s toughest test yet, and with a line that is so close, I’m going to side with the more established team. I’ll lay the field goal and take the road favorites in this spot.