The no. 4 Clemson Tigers hope to stay on pace for a spot in the College Football Playoff when they host the Florida State Seminoles. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST on Saturday, November 11 at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.

Oddsmakers have the Tigers as 16-point favorites at home. However, Clemson opened at -19, so early betting has favored Florida State. The over/under for the game is 46.5 points. Click here for a full list of Week 11 betting odds and links to game previews.

Florida State vs Clemson Game Preview & Betting Odds

With a 38-31 win over NC State last week, the Tigers took care of the toughest opponent they’ll play until the ACC Championship Game. A win this week against Florida State will officially clinch a spot in the ACC title game. But with a loss to Syracuse earlier this year, Clemson needs to stay perfect the rest of the season if they’re going to return to the College Football Playoff and defend their national championship.

Meanwhile, Florida State got back in the win column last week, although they needed Syracuse to miss two field goals in order to squeak past the Orange 27-24. Even with the win, the Seminoles are 3-5 on the season. They need to beat Clemson to avoid finishing under .500 in the ACC. The Noles also need to win three of their last four games to reach a bowl game. Unless FSU can upset the Tigers, they will have no margin for error down the stretch.

Free College Football Against the Spread Pick: Clemson -16

My early lean in this game is toward Clemson. Despite winning last week, I’m not buying FSU as being on Clemson’s level. The Tigers have more to lose, so they will come out focused. I see Clemson winning going away and covering the spread.

To be fair, all of Florida State’s losses this year have been competitive games outside of their 35-3 drubbing to Boston College a couple weeks back. But I’m not buying that after last week’s win the Seminoles are ready to finish the season strong. They still have a true freshman at quarterback who’s been inconsistent. Also, the FSU defense has forced the fewest turnovers of any Power 5 team. 

Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.

Last week against Syracuse, the Seminoles were out-gained by 120 yards. Their only touchdowns were on explosive plays they created by having superior athletes. Florida State won’t be able to replicate that against Clemson’s defense. Without big plays, I’m not sure how the Seminoles are going to score. True freshman quarterback James Blackman facing Clemson’s defense in Death Valley feels like a recipe for disaster from Florida State’s perspective. 

On the other side, the Tigers are coming off one of their best offensive performances of the season. Clemson scored 38 points against a quality NC State defense, scoring in a variety of ways. Perhaps most importantly, quarterback Kelly Bryant ran for 88 yards, the most he’s had since spraining his ankle last month. I expect the Clemson offense to be able to build off that kind of game, especially since they’ll be playing at home this week.

To be honest, this is a lot of points to cover, which does give me some pause. But with Bryant back healthy, I expect the Tigers to start playing their best football of the season heading down the stretch. That will start with a big win over Florida State that will cover the 16-point spread.