This Saturday the Florida State Seminoles will host the Miami Hurricanes in one of the better rivalries out of the ACC. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at Doak Campbell Stadium and will be televised nationally on ABC.
Oddsmakers opened up this game at FSU -4.5, but early money has come in on the Hurricanes and the line is down to the Seminoles -3.5. The total opened at 47.5, but it’s dropped to 46.5 at most places and there’s a 45.5 out there.
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Florida State vs Miami Vegas Betting Preview
Miami Hurricanes (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)
The Hurricanes come into this one off a 16-12 win at Pittsburgh as a 4.5-point underdog. It was a bit of surprising win on the road for Miami, as they had just lost 28-21 at home to an awful Georgia Tech team the previous week as a 18.5-point favorite.
What’s crazy is that even at 2-3 in ACC play the Hurricanes are not out of the ACC Coastal race. They are just 1-game out of first place, but there are 4 teams ahead of them with just 2 losses in conference play.
Another thing with Miami is that while they are just 4-4, their largest margin of defeat is just 7-points and the game that really stands out is the mere 4-point loss to Florida, who is currently sitting No. 6 in the AP Poll at 7-1.
Florida State Seminoles (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)
The Seminoles avoided a third straight loss with an easy 35-17 win and cover at home against Syracuse as a 12-point favorite. It wasn’t even that close, as Florida State had a 35-3 lead going into the 4th quarter.
While the Seminoles have no shot at overtaking Clemson in the Atlantic and 4-4 is not anywhere close to the standard at Florida State, they did go just 5-7 last year and missed out on a bowl for the first time in forever. Should be plenty of motivation for the Seminoles to get a win here and all but lock up bowl eligibility, as they got a for sure win on the schedule against Alabama State.
Miami had lost 7 straight to the Seminoles before squeaking out a 24-20 win at Florida State in 2017 as a 2.5-point favorite. They made it two straight over the Seminoles with a thrilling 28-27 win at home last year after trailing 27-7 in the second half. FSU did cover that one as a 14-point dog.
Free Pick & Point Spread Predictions: Florida State -3.5
My early lean here would be to lay the short number at home with the Seminoles, as I just don’t trust this Miami team in the slightest. Sure the win over Pitt looks nice given they won outright as a dog, but I don’t think the Panthers are anything special. Also, it’s hard to get excited about a win when you score just 16 points and total just 208 yards and 12 first downs. Pitt actually outgained the Hurricanes by 116 yards, which is also a troubling sign.
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Another thing is that while Miami has had a bunch of close losses, I can’t get past the fact that they lost at home to Georgia Tech, who had just lost by 18 at Duke and by 16 at home to UNC.
Florida State on the other hand is just a few plays from being 7-1 with their only setback a road loss at Clemson. They lost 36-31 at home to Boise State in a game they led 31-13 in the 2nd quarter. They lost 31-24 at Virginia in a game they led 17-10 going into the 4th quarter and also had a lead in the 4th quarter of a 22-20 loss at Wake Forest, where they missed a potential game-winning field goal in the final minutes of regulation.
Revenge is also a big factor here and there’s no question the Seminoles are going to be motivated to avoid a third straight loss to Miami. I also think there’s even more motivation here given how they blew that 20-point lead in the 2nd half to the Seminoles last year.
Hurricanes are 0-4 ATS last 4 times they have entered a contest off a win, just 4-9 ATS last 13 on the road, 6-14 ATS last 20 conference games and 2-10 ATS last 12 after a game where they scored less than 20 points. Give me the Seminoles -3.5!