The #14 ranked Florida Gators (5-1) travel to Nashville this weekend to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (3-3) in SEC action. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST at Vanderbilt Stadium and the game will be available on ESPN.
Taking a look at the Week 7 college football odds, Florida opened as a 8-point road favorite earlier this week. That line has moved by a full point after early betting, as the Gators are currently listed at -7. The total for the game is sitting at 51 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Vanderbilt vs Florida
Florida improved to 5-1 on the season last weekend after a huge 27-19 victory over #13 LSU last weekend. It was the Gators second consecutive win against a Top 25 opponent, as they defeated Mississippi State 13-6 in Week 5. Florida did most of their damage on the ground against the Tigers, racking up 215 rushing yards. RB Lamical Perine was fantastic, rushing for 85 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries. QB Feleipe Franks didn’t play very well at all, throwing for just 161 yards and a touchdown – he only completed 44% of his passes and gave up an interception. Franks has looked much better over his previous starts this year, passing for 1,122 yards and 13 touchdowns in six games. As a whole, Florida is currently averaging 34.0 points per game on 380.0 total yards.
On the other side of the ball, the Gators have looked fantastic through six weeks. Florida is currently giving up an average of just 14.8 points per game (8th) on 322.5 total yards. They have been fantastic against the pass, limiting opponents to only 148.7 yards per game through the air (6th overall).
Vanderbilt fell back to .500 overall on the season after a tough 41-13 loss against the #2 overall Georgia Bulldogs. The Commodores were badly outclassed on both sides of the ball, as the Commodores didn’t even find the end zone until the last few seconds of the 4th quarter. They also conceded an alarming 560 total yards to one of the top ranked offenses in the entire country. Vanderbilt did manage to find some success on the ground, accumulating 138 yards on an average of 4.8 yards per carry. However, they were forced to air it out early and often after the game got out of hand in the second quarter. QB Kyle Shurmur has thrown for 1,400 yards and 9 touchdowns so far this season. WR Kalija Lipscomb is clearly his favorite target through the air, as the junior has 45 catches for 496 yards and 6 touchdowns in just six games. Overall, Vanderbilt is currently averaging 25.2 points per game on 398.8 total yards.
The Commodores have been somewhat average defensively, allowing opponents to score 24 points per game on 398.5 yards of total offense. They have had some struggles defending against the pass, allowing 233.3 yards per game through the air (80th).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Florida -7
While this line has shifted in the direction of Vanderbilt by a full point after early betting, I’m still not sold on the Commodores. Florida has shown they are for real after consecutive victories over Top 25 ranked teams. Vanderbilt has struggled as of late, losing three out of their last four games. Their only win over that span was over TN State and it was far from convincing – the Commodores won by just four points. It is also extremely important to look at the recent history between these two SEC rivals, as the Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Vanderbilt Stadium. The road team is also 8-2 ATS over the last ten meetings between these two programs.
Click here for more free NCAAF picks from our top rated handicappers.
Florida is a very solid 5-2 ATS over their last seven games following a win. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Vanderbilt is just 1-8-1 ATS over their past ten conference games and 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine games following a loss.
The Commodores are also only 6-18 ATS over their past 24 home games against teams with a winning record. I fully expect that trend to continue on Saturday against a surging Florida team. The Gators will want to keep climbing towards a Top 10 ranking and will be fully prepared to face a conference rival on the road. Vanderbilt has a middle of the road defense that has given up some big numbers so far this season, including 37 to South Carolina and 41 to Georgia. I think Florida will win this one by double digits and improve to 6-1 on the season. I’ll lay the touchdown and take the Gators.