The #16 overall Fresno State Bulldogs (8-1) travel to Idaho this week to take on the Boise State Broncos (7-2) in Mountain West Conference action. Kickoff is set for 10:15 PM EST at Albertsons Stadium and the game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Taking a look at the Week 11 college football odds, Fresno State opened as a 2.5-point road favorite earlier this week. That line has moved just slightly after early betting, as the Bulldogs are currently listed at -3. The total for the game is sitting at 54.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Boise State vs Fresno State
Fresno State crushed UNLV 48-3 last weekend to extend their impressive winning streak to seven games while also moving to 8-1 on the season overall. The Bulldogs were dominant on both sides of the ball as they racked up 466 total yards of offense while also scoring an impressive 31 points in the second half. QB Marcus McMaryion played quite well against the Rebels, throwing for 274 yards and two touchdowns. McMaryion has now recorded at least two touchdowns in six consecutive games to lead the way for Fresno State offensively. He has already passed for 2,416 yards and 20 touchdowns over his first eight games, a career high. On the ground, the Bulldogs have six players who have recorded at least 130 rushing yards total on the year. As a whole, the offense is currently averaging a solid 40.4 points per game (13th overall) on 431.3 yards of total offense (46th).
Things have looked even better on the other side of the ball for Fresno State, as opponents are averaging just 12.3 points per game (2nd overall) on 307.0 total yards of offense (14th overall). The Bulldogs also have recorded the second most interceptions in the FBS (15) and are only giving up 178.2 yards per game through the air (15th).
Boise State won their fourth consecutive game last weekend after managing to sneak past BYU by a score of 21-16. Things were a little to close for comfort for the Broncos, as they needed a last-second goal line stand by the defense to stay unbeaten at home so far this season. QB Brett Rypien was less flashy then he has been at other times this year, throwing for just 214 yards and a touchdown. Rypien is on pace to record his third 3,000+ yard season with Boise State – he is also just 250 yards short of overtaking QB Ryan Lindley as the all-time Mountain West Conference passing leader. There is no doubt that Rypien has benefited substantially from playing with the deadly receiving duo of Sean Modster and A.J. Richardson, who have combined for 1,313 yards and 12 touchdowns. RB Alexander Mattison has really stepped his game up this year as well, rushing for 726 yards and ten touchdowns in just nine games. Overall, the offense is currently averaging 38.0 points per game (21st overall) on 468.7 yards of total offense (20th).
Things have looked above average on the other side of the ball for the Broncos, as they are currently giving up an average of just 23.7 points per game (41st overall). However, they have struggled a little bit against the pass – opponents are currently averaging 234.4 yards per game through the air (74th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Fresno State -3
This is shaping up to be a very entertaining game between two high-powered offenses. Both teams feature prolific passing attacks with several outstanding wideouts who are having huge statistical seasons. However, I’m a bit surprised that the Bulldogs are only favored by a field goal in this particular matchup. While they are only scoring about two more points per game than Boise State, their defense is only allowing 12.3 points per game – 10+ fewer than the Broncos. I know that it’s hard to head into Albertsons Stadium and steal a victory on the road, but I still think there is a lot of value on the Bulldogs side with the spread currently being so small.
Fresno State is a very solid 13-2-1 ATS over their past 16 road games. They are also 25-4-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a record of at least .500 on the season. Boise State is only 5-15 ATS over their past 20 home games. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a record above .500 on the season.
The Bulldogs are also a ridiculous 8-1 ATS in their nine games so far this year. On the other hand, the Broncos are only 4-4-1 ATS over the same time-span. While I am expecting this one to stay close until the 4th quarter, I think the vastly improved Fresno State defense will be the biggest difference in this rematch of the Mountain West Championship Game from last season (Boise State won 17-14). I’m overjoyed to only have to lay a field goal in this spot – give me Fresno State to cover on the road.