The Fresno State Bulldogs (6-3) take on the Hawaii Warriors (3-6) this weekend in a MWC showdown. Kickoff will be at 11:00 PM EST on Saturday, November 11th from Aloha Stadium in Halawa, Hawaii. The game will be televised locally on KSEE24-TV in California and Spectrum Sports PPV in Hawaii.
Fresno State enters this game as 10 point road favorites. Betting throughout the week changed the line only slightly, as the Bulldogs originally opened at -9.5. The over/under for the game is 51.5 points. Click here for a full list of Week 10 betting odds and links to game previews.
Fresno State vs Hawaii Line & Game Preview
The Bulldogs managed to grind out a victory at home last weekend over the visiting BYU Cougars. Fresno State certainly didn’t dominate offensively, as they struggled to get anything going on the ground all game long. However, their defense made several key stops before the Bulldogs went ahead 20-13 in the 4th quarter. QB Marcus McMaryion wasn’t able to find the end zone but RB Jordan Mims managed to hit pay dirt twice despite only rushing for 54 yards on 20 carries. Fresno State has been extremely impressive defensively all season long, limiting opponents to an average of just 311.3 total yards per game (16th overall). They have also allowed an average of only 18.0 points per game (14th).
Hawaii now needs to win out in order to remain Bowl eligible after falling to UNLV last weekend 31-23. The Warriors held a 13-7 lead before allowing UNLV to score 21 unanswered points in the 3rd quarter. QB Dru Brown struggled with accuracy issues all game, completing just 24/47 of his passing attempts. However, he did manage to find the end zone once, hitting his favorite receiving Dylan Collie for a 20 yard touchdown. RB Diocemy Sainte Juste had another 100+ yard game on the ground, his sixth such performance so far this season. As a whole, Hawaii has been below average offensively, managing to only score an average of 25.8 points per game (84th overall). Things have been even worse on the other side of the ball, as 2Hawaii is giving up an average of 34.2 points per game on 464.2 total yards (116th overall).
Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: Fresno State -10
I recommended taking Fresno State at -10.5 over BYU last weekend and things didn’t end up working out in a game that was a lot closer than I was expecting. However, I’m going back to the well again this weekend in this match-up with a well-below average Hawaii team. I don’t expect the Warriors to be able to get much of anything going offensively against one of the best defensive units in the entire country. I also expect the Bulldogs to score more than 20 points after a disappointing offense performance last weekend.
Fresno State is 5-1 ATS over their past six games following an against the spread loss. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their past four road games. Hawaii is just 4-16-1 ATS over their past 21 home games and a brutal 0-7 ATS in their past seven home games against teams with a winning road record. The only real question mark I have surrounding the Bulldogs heading into this game is how well they handle the extra travel and slight time change. However, Fresno State is a very impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Hawaii.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.
I’m fully expecting the Bulldogs to win this game by at least ten points against a fairly weak opponent. Hawaii is just 1-5 against MWC opponents whereas Fresno State is an impressive 4-1. Both teams have played nine games so far this season – Fresno State is 6-2-1 ATS and Hawaii is just 1-7-1 ATS. I really think that those trends continue on Saturday evening and feel fairly comfortable that the Bulldogs will cover with relative ease.