The Utah State Aggies (4-4) travel to California this weekend for a Mountain West battle with the Fresno State Bulldogs (4-4). Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM EST on November 9th at Bulldog Stadium and the game will be televised on the CBS Sports Network.
Taking a look at the Week 11 college football odds, Fresno State opened as a 3.5-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread has moved upwards by over a full point after early betting, as the Bulldogs are currently available at -5. The total for the game is sitting at 58 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Fresno State vs Utah State
Utah State lost their second game in a row last weekend, falling 42-14 at home against BYU to drop back to .500 overall on the season. The Aggies gave up 14 unanswered points in the third quarter and never recovered, getting completely shut out on offense the entire second half. QB Jordan Love certainly wasn’t at his best, going 29/49 for 394 passing yards and one touchdown but also throwing three interceptions. RB Gerold Bright led the way on the ground, rushing for 66 yards and a score on a team high 12 carries on the ground. Jordan Nathan also chipped in, making seven catches for 133 receiving yards. As a whole, Utah State generated over 500 total yards of offense and scored two touchdowns despite coming up well short on the scoreboard.
The Aggies had a brutal outing on the other side of the ball against BYU, allowing the Cougars to rack up over 600 total yards of offense and score six touchdowns. Utah State had no answer for QB Jaren Hall on the ground, as he rushed for two touchdowns on just seven carries.
Fresno State has now won two out of their last three games after slipping by Hawaii 41-38 on the road last weekend to improve to 4-4 overall. The Bulldogs took the lead in the third quarter by scoring 17 unanswered points and managed to hold on down the stretch despite getting outscored 14-10 over the final 15 minutes of the game. QB Jorge Reyna went 17/27 for 188 passing yards and a touchdown through the air while also adding 11 carries for 96 yards on the ground. Jalen Cropper gave the Rainbow Warriors problems defensively all evening, recording 123 total yards and finding the end zone once. Overall, Fresno State gained over 500 total yards of offense and scored five touchdowns in the win.
The Bulldogs were pretty bad defensively against Hawaii, surrendering well over 550 total yards of offense and five touchdowns. Fresno State really struggled to slow down the Rainbow Warriors on the ground, as they scored four rushing touchdowns.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 58
I don’t think either of these Mountain West schools offer a ton of value against the spread in this matchup, as the number looks pretty efficient to me overall. This game could easily go either way, as both teams have identical 4-4 records and have had a fairly equal schedule through the first ten weeks of the season. The same trend has also been present when looking at how each program has fared against the spread this year, as Fresno State is 3-4-1 ATS while Utah State is 4-4 ATS over the same time span. However, I do think the OVER on 58 total points scored is very appealing, as neither defense has played very well while both offenses have scored at least 30 points four times on the season already.
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Fresno State has really struggled on defense in recent weeks, giving up at least 38 points in three out of their last four games overall. Even so, their offense has really picked up the slack since the beginning of October, averaging over 35 points per game over the last month. On the other side, the Aggies have surrendered 73 total points in just their last two outings combined. The total has also gone OVER in two out of the last three meetings between these two Mountain West rivals. It is also important to note that the OVER has hit in four out of Fresno State’s last five games as well. I’m going to avoid both teams against the spread in favor of the OVER on 58 total points scored in what should be a pretty entertaining conference battle on Saturday evening.