The #5 overall Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) host the #1 overall Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) this weekend in the SEC Championship Game. Kickoff is set for 4:00 PM EST on December 1st at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and the game will be broadcast on CBS.
Taking a look at the Week 14 college football odds, Alabama opened as a 10.5-point road favorite earlier this week. That line has shifted substantially after early betting, as the Crimson Tide are currently listed at -13. The total for the game is sitting at 63.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Georgia vs Alabama
Alabama dismantled Auburn 52-21 last weekend to stay undefeated, as they enter the SEC title game with a perfect 12-0 record. The Crimson Tide have been unstoppable all season long, scoring 50+ points in nine out of their twelve games. QB Tua Tagovailoa has passed for 3,189 yards and 36 touchdowns in just twelve games to lead the way on offense. He has had a ton of help from WR Jerry Jeudy, who has racked up 1,079 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Henry Ruggs III is also enjoying a fantastic season, as he has caught 39 passes for 675 yards and ten touchdowns. On the ground, the dynamic duo of Damien and Najee Harris have combined for 1,383 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. As a whole, Alabama is currently averaging a ridiculous 49.0 points per game (2nd overall) on 538.0 yards of total offense.
The Crimson Tide have also been fantastic defensively so far this season, allowing opponents to score an average of just 13.8 points per game (3rd overall). They have been equally as impressive against both the pass and the run, ranking 10th and 15th overall respectively.
Georgia embarrassed long-time rival Georgia Tech last weekend, dominating the Yellow Jackets on both sides of the ball en route to an impressive 45-21 victory. The Bulldogs racked up 471 total yards, including 247 on the ground from a combination of six different players – three of which found the end zone. QB Jake Fromm also played well, passing for 224 yards and two touchdowns while also completing 75% of his attempts. Fromm has now thrown for 2,236 yards and 24 touchdowns in twelve games. Like Alabama, Georgia also has a dynamic rushing duo, as D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield have combined for 1,858 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. Overall, the offense is currently averaging 40.1 points per game on 481.4 total yards.
The Bulldogs have looked pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball this year, limiting opponents to just 17.2 points per game (10th overall). They have been absolutely fantastic against the pass, giving up only 175.1 yards per game through the air (13th overall).
SEC Championship Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Georgia +13
This line has already moved by 2.5 points after early betting, and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised at all if it hits 13.5 or 14 by kickoff on Saturday. However, I still think the Bulldogs offer some decent value in this particular spot for several reasons. First, the “neutral site” location of the game is Mercedes-Benz Stadium – which is clearly in the heart of Georgia. There is no doubt that this will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs. Secondly, both of these teams still have a shot at the College Football Playoff. Obviously, the undefeated Crimson Tide feel like pretty much a lock at this point, but if Georgia can somehow pull off the unthinkable and hand Alabama their first loss, they do have a very real shot at breaking into the top four.
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Both of these schools have been fantastic against the spread as of late, as the Crimson Tide are a perfect 4-0 ATS over their last four games against teams with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Georgia is a rock-solid 4-1 ATS over their last five conference games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record.
However, the biggest factor for my decision in this particular spot relates to how well the Bulldogs have fared against the spread when playing Alabama as of late. Georgia is a very impressive 4-2-1 ATS over the last seven meetings between these two SEC rivals. I think that trend continues here in the 2018 edition of the SEC Championship Game, so I’m taking the free points and taking the home team to cover. While I’m certainly not suggesting that the Bulldogs will win outright, they are more than capable of keeping this matchup close for four quarters.