This Saturday the Auburn Tigers (10-2) will take on the Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) in the SEC Championship Game, which will almost assuredly send the winner into the College Football Playoffs. Kickoff is set for 4:00 EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and will be televised nationally on CBS.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as 2-point favorite with the total set at 49 points. Click here for our full Week 14 betting schedule and more links to our game previews.
Georgia vs Auburn Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview
The Bulldogs closed out the regular-season with a convicting 38-7 win on the road over in-state rival Georgia Tech, easily covering as a 11-point favorite. It was a little closer than Georgia would have liked early, as the Yellow Jackets trailed just 7-17 at the half, but the Bulldogs went on a 21-0 run in the first 20 minutes of the 2nd half to take complete control.
The Tigers punched their ticket into the SEC title game with a 26-14 win at home over No. 1 Alabama as a 5.5-point underdog. Auburn took a 10-7 lead into the half, but the Crimson Tide would open the 2nd half with a touchdown to take a 14-10 lead. From that point on it was all Tigers, as they closed out the game on a 16-0 run to hand Alabama their first loss of the season.
As most of you aware, these two teams already met once during the regular season and it wasn’t that long ago. That was back on Nov. 11th with then No. 1 Georgia visiting Auburn as a 2.5-point road favorite. You would have thought the Tigers were the No. 1 team, as they laid a 40-17 beating on Bulldogs. The total for those wondering was 47.5.
Free NCAA Football Pick & Betting Predictions: UNDER 49
As dominant as Auburn was in that first meeting against Georgia, I don’t love backing teams in rematch games, especially when the first win came at home. I also feel like the Bulldogs didn’t given the Tigers their full attention, as the intensity level just wasn’t where it needed to be. I don’t see that happening this time around and could honestly see this one going either way. If I had to take a side I would lean towards Georgia getting the points, but I think the best value in this matchup is the UNDER.
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For starters, I don’t see Auburn putting up 40 points on the Bulldogs in the rematch. That was one of only two games all season where Georgia allowed more than 20 points. The only other exception being the 28-points they allowed to Missouri and that was a bit of a fluke. Missouri scored their first touchdown off a turnover where they got the ball on the Georgia 5-yard line, had two 63-yard touchdown passes, scored a garbage touchdown late with the Bulldogs up 47-21. Simply put, the game against Auburn the first time around was as bad as the defense could have played and I believe a big part of that was they showed up thinking it was going to be another easy win.
You also have to factor in that Georgia’s defense will be better prepared for Auburn’s offense the second time around. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Bulldogs hold the Tigers under 20 points.
As for the Georgia offense, I don’t know that it’s going to be a whole lot easier the second time around against this Auburn defense. The Tigers completely shutdown the Bulldogs running game, holding Georgia to just 46 yards on 32 attempts, which comes out to 1.4 yards/carry. At the same time, even if Georgia has more success running the ball, it doesn’t mean they are going to score a ton of points. Auburn just allowed 209 rushing yards to Alabama and held the Tide to just 14 points.
I just don’t see either offense being able to get going to to the point to push this over the mark. Keep in mind that we could have a 27-21 final score and that still wouldn’t be enough. Personally I think it’s going to be more like 22-17, which gives us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 49.