florida-georgia-odds

This Saturday the No. 14 Florida Gators will take on the Georgia Bulldogs in a SEC East showdown in Jacksonville. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at EverBank Field and will be televised on CBS. Oddsmakers have the Gators as a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 43.5 points. Click here for more free betting leans and game previews for Week 9 college football.

Florida vs Georgia Vegas Betting Odds

The Gators (5-1, 3-1 SEC) come into this one off a 40-14 blowout win over Missouri at home. Florida won despite turning it over 4 times, as they had a 523 to 363 edge in total yards.

The Bulldogs (4-3, 2-3 SEC) come in off a surprising 16-17 home loss to Vanderbilt. Georgia was a sizable 14-point favorite in that one. Based on the numbers there’s no way they should have lost. The Bulldogs had a 421 to 171 edge in total yards and 23-9 advantage in first downs.

The Gators dominated this rivalry last year, crushing the Bulldogs 27-3. Florida as a small 1.5-point favorite in that game. It was the first time the favorite covered in the series since 2011.

Free Pick & Point Spread Predictions: Georgia +7.5

I think we are getting some great value here on the Bulldogs in this one. I believe we are seeing an inflated line here based on the results of these two teams in their last game. Florida won convincingly over Missouri by 26 and Georgia lost at home to Vanderbilt.

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The public isn’t going to take the time to look at how Georgia lost to Vanderbilt. That was one of the most misleading finals of the season. You just don’t lose games when you outgain anĀ opponent by 250 yards and have 14 more first downs. Especially when you hold that opponent to just 171 total yards and 9 first downs.

Florida’s blowout win against Missouri also isn’t as impressive as you might think. The Tigers are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They are 109th in total defense and 106th against the run.

It’s not the first bad defense the Gators have faced this season. In fact, the best defense they have faced all year is Vanderbilt, which ranks 62nd in total defense. Every other team they faced currently ranks 80th or worse in total defense. Note that Florida only scored 13 points on 236 total yards in that game against the Commodores.

Now they face a Georgia defense that comes in ranked 20th in total defense. The big key here, is the Bulldogs are at their best against the run. They are 17th in the country, allowing just 111.1 ypg and just 3.5 yards/carry.

The Gators are also really good defensively, but I think Georgia can have come success here. Keep in mind that Florida’s defensive numbers aren’t as great as they would seem. Of their 6 opponents, 5 rank 80th or worse in total offense.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Bulldogs have been a strong bet off a close loss. Georgia is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 off a defeat by 3 points or less. We also see that Florida is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a win by 20 or more and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after covering in their previous game.