This Thursday the Texas State Bobcats (1-4) will host the Georgia Southern Eagles (4-1) in Sun Belt action. Kickoff is set for 7:30 EST at Bobcat Stadium and will be televised on ESPNU.
Taking a look at the Week 7 college football odds, the books have Georgia Southern listed as a 17-point point road favorite with the total set at 49.5 points.
Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview: Georgia Southern vs Texas State
The Eagles come into this one off a 48-13 win at home against South Alabama, easily covering as a 12-point favorite. The win improved Georgia Southern to 2-0 in Sun Belt play, as they upset Arkansas State 28-21 as a 3-point home dog the week before. The only loss for the Eagles on the season is a 38-7 defeat at Clemson, but they covered as 32-point dogs and are sitting at 5-0 ATS to start the year.
The Bobcats dropped to 0-2 in league play with a 42-27 loss at home to Lafayette as a mere 3-point dog. Their only win on the season is a 36-20 victory over FCS foe Texas Southern, which they came no where close to covering as a 33.5-point favorite. Texas State is just 1-3-1 ATS.
Georgia Southern has won the only two meetings in the series, but the two haven’t played since 2015. The Eagles won 28-25 at Texas State in 2014 and 37-13 at home in 2015.
Free College Football Pick & Betting Predictions: Georgia Southern -17
My early lean here would have to be to lay the points with Georgia Southern. You have to be careful backing big road favorites in these weekday games, but there’s just no way I could stomach taking this Texas State team to keep this within 20-points.
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The Eagles were clearly way undervalued coming into this season and that’s evident by the fact that they are sitting at 5-0 ATS with some big time covers. Three different times they have covered the number by at least 10 points. Why are they so undervalued? Georgia Southern went just 2-10 last year and over the previous two seasons had gone a miserable 6-16-2 ATS. They have recommitted to running the option, are in year two under head coach Chad Lunsford and returned 18 starters.
As inflated as this number might seem, I actually think it’s no where close to enough. Texas State is one of the worst FBS teams in the country. They lost 35-7 to a Rutgers team that has since lost by 20+ points to Kansas, Buffalo and Illinois. They lost to a South Alabama team by 10, who not only lost to Georgia Southern by 35, but was annihilated 52-7 by Appalachian State. They also lost to a bad UTSA team that struggled to beat the likes of Rice and UTEP.
I think it’s really hard for the books to adjust the numbers on teams like Texas State who are so bad. Unlike a lot of teams who are going to get fired up for a weekday game, the Bobcats aren’t one of them, especially playing on just 4 days of rest against an option offense. Texas State is giving up almost 12 ppg more than what their opponent is averaging and scoring nearly 16 points less than what their opponents are allowing. Georgia Southern is going to score at will here. The Eagles are averaging 275 rushing yards/game and that’s with just 80 yards in their game against Clemson.
It’s also worth noting that Clemson is the only team to score more than 21 points against this Georgia Southern defense. I just think so much is going to have to go right for Texas State to make this game respectable, that is worth the risk to lay the big number on the road. Give me the Eagles -17.