This Thursday the Troy Trojans (4-1) will host the Georgia State Panthers (2-3). Kickoff is set for 7:30 EST at Veterans Memorial Stadium and will be televised on ESPNU.

Oddsmakers opened the Trojans as a 17-point home favorite, but that has been bet down at most books. Right now Troy is anywhere from a 15 to 16-point favorite depending on where you shop. The total for this matchup has been set at 56 points. Click here for a full list of the Week 6 odds and for more links to our game previews.

Vegas Game Preview & Betting Odds: Georgia State vs Troy

The Panthers snapped a 3-game skid in fashion, taking down UL Monroe 46-14 as a 5.5-point home dog to open up Sun Belt play at 1-0. The biggest thing to keep in mind with Georgia State’s 2-3 start, is two of those losses came on the road against the likes of NC State and Memphis.

Troy improved to 2-0 in conference play with a 45-21 win and cover at home over Coastal Carolina as a 14-point favorite. The Trojans have now covered the number in 4 straight after losing by 36 at home to Boise State in their opener as a 8.5-point dog.

Troy has won 4 of the 5 meetings in the series since Georgia State joined the Sun Belt back in 2013. The Trojans won and covered last year 34-10 as a 6-point road favorite, but did win by just 10 as a 20-point favorite at home in 2016.

Free NCAA Football Betting Pick & Predictions: Troy -15.5

I would have to lean towards laying the points with the Trojans at home. Troy has clearly been undervalued by the books following that poor showing against Boise State in Week 1, as they covered 4 straight since that loss. I just don’t feel the number here has been set high enough and a bit surprised to see it drop like it has. It almost feels like people are giving Georgia State way too much respect off that blowout win as a dog in their last game against ULM.

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I know the Panthers put up 46 points in that win over the Warhawks, but this is simply not a good offensive team. That was more of a result of just how bad ULM is defensively. Even after that offensive outburst, Georgia State is still ranked a mere 102nd in the country in total offense at just 361.2 ypg.

They are going to find it a lot harder to move the ball against a fast improving Troy defense, that has allowed just 18.5 ppg since giving up 56 in the opener against Boise State. Keep in mind last year the Trojans only allowed 6 points and 307 total yards to the Panthers.

I just don’t see Georgia State being able to score enough to keep this one close. Troy comes in averaging 41.3 ppg and 441 ypg at home. Expect more of the same against an awful Georgia State defense the is allowing 50.0 ppg and 610 ypg on the road. Adding to this, the Panthers are nearly giving up a first down every time the opponent runs a play on the road, as they are allowing 9.2 yards/play away from home.

The other big thing that can’t get overlooked here is how difficult is for the road team to play well in these weekday games on short rest. I believe it’s that much harder when you have a bad team like Georgia State, who simply doesn’t have a lot of talent to work with. This is also a very young Panthers team that only returned 11 starters and has a true freshman at quarterback, so it’s really asking a lot for this team to keep this within 20 points against a good Troy team that is going to show up in a rare nationally televised game.

It’s also worth noting that Troy is a perfect 6-0 ATS after a game in which they scored 42 or more points, while Georgia State is a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after accumulating 450 or more total yards in their last game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Trojans -15.5.