The New York Giants (1-4) are set to host the Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 EST at MetLife Stadium and will be televised on both FOX and the NFL Network.

Taking a look at the Week 6 NFL odds, the books opened the Eagles as a slim 2.5-point road favorite, but that’s since been bet up to Philadelphia -3. The total for this NFC East showdown is currently at 44 points.

Giants vs Eagles Vegas Betting Odds & Game Preview

The Eagles come into this one off a 23-21 home loss to the Vikings, failing to cover in a fourth straight game (1-4 ATS) as a 3-point favorite. While the final score makes it appear like it was a close game, Philadelphia was behind the entire game and trailed 20-3 late in the 3rd quarter. Carson Wentz had another big day, throwing for 311 yards and 2 scores, but the offensive output continues to be underwhelming, as the Eagles are averaging just 20.6 ppg after putting up 28.6 ppg in 2017.

It’s been an even more disappointing start to the 2018 season for the Giants, who are now 1-4 after a crushing 33-31 loss at Carolina on Sunday. New York trailed 17-3 early and 27-16 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter, but rallied to take a 31-30 lead with 1:08 left to play. Just when it looked like the Giants were going to secure a potential season-changing victory, they watch the Panthers Graham Gano drill a 63-yard field goal in the final seconds.

This has been a pretty lopsided series of late. Philadelphia swept both meetings last year and have won 7 of the last 8 against the Giants. With that said, New York was on the right side of the number in both matchups last year. The Giants covered as a 5-point road dog in a 27-24 defeat at Philadelphia and lost 34-29 as a 7.5-point home dog in the rematch.

NFL Betting Predictions & Free Pick Against the Spread: OVER 44

If I had to take a side in this one, I would probably roll the dice with the Giants getting a field goal at home, but I think the best value here is on the OVER 44. I just don’t think the books adjust the numbers enough for these Thursday Night games with teams playing on short rest. Defense is all about effort an energy. The players simply don’t have enough time to¬†recover with just 3 days between games and it leads to some high-scoring games. The OVER is 3-1 in¬†Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.

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Whether you were a fan of Odell Beckham Jr. calling out his team or not, it seemed to have a positive impact on their play. They played their hearts out against the Panthers and while they came up short, I think it’s something they can build on. The most important thing is they got their offense going, as they racked up 31 points and 432 total yards on a very good Carolina defense, who keep in mind had a huge edge coming off their bye.

Philadelphia’s defense just hasn’t been the same dominant unit this year. Kirk Cousins just completed 30 of 37 attempts for 301 yards and the week before Marcus Mariota went 30 of 43 for 344 yards. In Week 2, Ryan Fitzpatrick was 27 of 33 for 402 yards. Eli Manning is coming off a 326-yard performance against the Panthers and should light up the boxscore in this one.

As for the Eagles offense, I think we are dangerously close to Philadelphia exploding on that side of the ball. Carson Wentz is getting better and better and has thrown for 659 yards and 4 scores (0 interceptions) in his last two starts. The Eagles had two fumbles in Minnesota territory last week, including one inside the 10-yard line. It’s only a matter a time before the breaks go their way.

I know the Giants come into this game with the 8th ranked pass defense, giving up just 229.4 ypg, but that number is skewed a bit because of the two teams against Blake Bortles and Dak Prescott. Desean Watson carved up this secondary for 368 yards in Week 3 and I think Wentz exploits a tired Giants defense on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that with the way the Eagles are struggling to run the football, they got no choice but to air it out, which definitely plays into the game going OVER.

Simply put, I think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these two offenses have struggled early on. All we need is for something like 24-21 to cash a winning ticket and it’s worth noting that in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, they have combined for at least 43 points with 4 of the 5 eclipsing 50 points. Give me the OVER 44.