The Atlanta Falcons (2-4) are set to host the New York Giants (1-5) on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and will be televised on ESPN.

Taking a look at the Week 7 NFL betting odds, the books have the Falcons listed either as a 4.5 or 5-point home favorite depending on where you shop. The total for this matchup is currently at 54 points.

Vegas Game Preview & Betting Odds: Giants vs Falcons

New York comes into this one off an ugly showing at home against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. After showing some life in a 31-33 loss at Carolina in Week 5, the Giants lost 34-13 to the defending champs. It’s been an absolutely dreadful start to the Pat Shurmur era in New York, as a Giants team many thought would compete for a playoff spot has started out just 1-5.

Atlanta enters off a 34-29 win at home over division rival Tampa Bay. The Falcons jumped out to an early 21-6 lead, but allowed the Bucs to storm back and get as close as 31-29. Tampa Bay also had the ball down 5 with 1st & 10 from the Atlanta 21 with 12 seconds to play. The win snapped a 3-game skid for the Falcons and was a rare cover, as they are just 2-4 ATS on the season.

NFL Free Betting Pick & Predictions: Giants +5

My early lean here would be take the points with the Giants in this one. While I’m going to give my reasoning for that pick, I do want to point out that I strongly considered taking the OVER 54 here.

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For me, I just think the Falcons are a team the Giants can have a lot of success against. Atlanta’s defense just hasn’t been the same since they lost two of their star players in linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Prior to giving up 29 points to the Bucs last week, the Falcons had allowed at least 37 in each of their previous 3 games, including 40+ to both the Saints and Steelers. Atlanta comes into this game ranked 31st in the league, giving up 32.0 ppg and 30th in total defense, allowing 417.1 ypg.

Opposing teams have been able to do whatever they want against this defense, as the Falcons are 24th against the run (121.3 ypg) and 29th against the pass (295.8 ypg). As much as the Giants offense has struggled, this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Saquon Barkley to put up monster numbers in this one and for Eli Manning to have one of his better games.

Not to make excuses for New York’s 1-5 start, but it certainly hasn’t been the easiest of schedules over their first 6 games. Their 3 home games have all come against playoff teams from last year in the Jaguars, Saints and Eagles and there’s nothing easy about their 3 road games against the Cowboys, Texans and Panthers. The rest of the schedule is very manageable for the Giants and with no team running away with the NFC East, I still think this team has a pulse and are going to lay it all on the line in this one.

I also like the matchup here for the Giants defense. Atlanta’s really struggled to get their run game going and while the numbers aren’t great, New York is only giving allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts. In comparison, the Falcons defense is allowing opposing QBs to complete 70.4% of their attempts. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Atlanta’s high-powered passing attack, but I think they can make enough stops and score enough points to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but win it outright.

The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 30 or more points. Giants are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 off a double-digit home loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points.

We also have a strong system in play favoring New York. Underdogs who have a mediocre offense (18 to 23 ppg) and are off a game where they scored 14 or fewer are 98-57 (63%) ATS since 1983 when facing a team that is averaging 27 or more points/game. Give me the Giants +5!