The Green Bay Packers will play host to the New York Giants on Wild Card action this Sunday. Kickoff is set for 4:40 EST at Lambeau Field and will televised on FOX. Oddsmakers have Green Bay as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 44.5 points.

Giants vs Packers Vegas Betting Preview

New York (11-5) closed out the regular season with an impressive 19-10 win at Washington. The game meant nothing to the Giants, who were locked into the No. 5 seed. The Redskins on the other hand, simply needed a win to make the playoffs. New York finished up 9-2 over their final 11 games. They ended up as the No. 5 seed, but actually were tied with the Falcons for the 2nd best record in the NFC.

Green Bay (10-6) continued their late season surge with a 31-24 win at Detroit. Locking up yet another NFC North title and securing their sixth straight win. Few gave the Packers a chance at making the postseason after a 4-game skid dropped them to 4-6. Aaron Rodgers said they had to run the table and they did just that. This is the Packers 8th straight appearance in the playoffs.

These two teams met back in Week 5 at Green Bay. The Packers, who were off a bye week, won that contest 23-16. It wasn’t really as close as the final score would indicate. Green Bay never trailed and were up 23-9 in the 4th quarter. They also had a 406 to 221 edge in total yards and 23-14 advantage in first downs.

Free Picks & Odds Predictions: Giants +4.5

As well as Green Bay has been playing, I think the value here is with New York. Let’s not forget this is a Giants team that posted the 2nd best record in the NFC and beat the Cowboys twice. I’m not saying the Packers shouldn’t be favored, I just think it should be a field goal or less.

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There’s an interesting thing that’s happened in each of NY’s last two Super Bowl runs. The Giants went on the road and beat the Packers in the playoffs. Both times after losing to Green Bay in the regular season. It wouldn’t surprise me if they did it again.

The thing is, I feel like this is a great matchup for New York. The Giants feature one of the league’s best defenses. They ranked 3rd against the run, allowing just 88.6 ypg and gave up just 3.6 yards/carry. While they were 23rd against the pass (251.1 ypg), a lot of that had to do with teams not being able run on them. The key stat for me is that opposing quarterbacks only completed 58.6% of their attempts.

It’s also worth pointing out that this Giants team didn’t allow a single team to score 30 points on them. The most they gave up was 29 back in Week 3. They had 9 games where they held their opponents to 20 points or fewer. With the talent they have in the secondary and ability to get pressure on the QB, they can make life miserable for Rodgers. Especially given how much the Packers struggle to get their running game going.

On the flip side of this, this Green Bay defense is no where close to what it was back in Week 5. The Packers secondary has been decimated with injuries. They closed out the season giving up 3 straight 300 yard passing performances. Two of those coming to the likes of Sam Bradford and Matt Barkley. Manning hasn’t been great, but he should be able to exploit this secondary. I just don’t know who the Packers have that can matchup with Odell Beckham Jr.

The Giants are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a Wild Card team in the playoffs. They are also 9-0 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. New York is also 9-2 ATS in last 11 against strong offenses that are averaging 5.65 or more yards/play. As well as 31-16 ATS in last 47 against bad pass defenses (allowing 7 or more yards/attempt).