The New England Patriots will host the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football to get Week 6 action underway. Kickoff is set for 8:20 EST at Gillette Stadium and will be televised on both FOX and the NFL Network.
Oddsmakers opened up the line at New England -17, but early money has shifted the line towards the Giants. Most books now have the Patriots at -16.5 and some are down to -16.
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Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Giants vs Patriots
New York Giants (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS)
New York suffered its first loss with rookie Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback. After back-to-back wins and covers at Tampa Bay in Week 3 and at home against the Redskins in Week 4, the Giants fell 28-10 as a 5.5-point road dog against the Vikings.
It was pretty lopsided the whole way. Minnesota led 10-0 early and were up 18-7 at the half. The Vikings had a massive 490 to 211 edge in total yards and could have easily put up a bigger number than 28, as Minnesota had to settle for field goals.
Jones finished 21 of 38 for 182 yards with a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. Not only was he going against a really good Vikings defense, but backup running back Wayne Gallman, who is filling in for the injured Saquon Barkley was lost to a concussion in the 1st quarter. New York ended up with just 64 rushing on 20 attempts.
New England Patriots (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS)
The Patriots continued their impressive start to the 2019 season with a 33-7 road win and cover as a 16-point favorite at Washington. It wasn’t all that pretty early, as New England only had a 12-7 edge at the half, but once the offense got going it was game over. Pats finished with a 442 to 220 edge in total yards and 23 to 11 advantage in first downs.
The cover for New England was the first in three games, as they had failed to cover as a 7-point road favorite in a 16-10 win at Buffalo in Week 4 and defeated the Jets 30-14 as a massive 20.5-point favorite in Week 3.
With the Chiefs surprising home loss to the Colts in Week 5, New England is now the only undefeated team in the AFC at 5-0. Even though the Bills are just 1-game back in the AFC East, Pats already beat Buffalo on the road. The other two teams in the division are 0-4.
When you think of Patriots vs Giants, just about everyone is going to recall New York’s two improbable wins over New England in the Super Bowl. While it’s been almost 7 years since they last met in the Super Bowl, you have to think this one means a little more to Belichick and Brady.
Free NFL Betting Pick & Predictions: OVER 42.5
If I had to take a side I would lay the big number with New England. I’m pretty confident the Patriots will be up by at least 17-points at some point in the game, I just would be a little worried about the backdoor cover by the G-men. I just think there’s a little more value here with the OVER, especially given how it’s dropped down to 42 after opening at 46.5.
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The big reason we are seeing a low total is because of the injuries with some of the Giants key offensive players. New York figures to be down their top two running backs (still a chance Barkley plays), as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.
You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.
I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.
At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.
The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. Give me the OVER 42.5!