While the majority of college football games are played on Saturday, there are several matchups throughout the season that take place on a week night. Unless a team is coming off a bye or played in a weekday game the previous week, they are forced to play these contests on limited rest. I got to thinking about how the lack of practice and time to prepare for an opponent impacted the betting aspect of things. I was able to spot two trends that are worth paying attention to when making your NCAA football picks this season.

Both Teams Playing On Short Rest (Five or Less Days)

I think a lot of people assume that the home team would have the edge against the spread in games where both teams are playing on short rest, but that’s not the case at all. In fact, home teams have covered the spread in this scenario just 49.5% of the time. While there’s nothing to get excited about when it comes to which team covers the number, there is money to be made on the total. Over the last 190 times that this situation has came up, the game has gone OVER the posted total 56.1% (105-82-3) of the time. It’s been even stronger of late, hitting 57%(53-40-1) over the last three seasons.

Both Teams Playing Exactly on Five Days Rest

I could have easily decided to quit my research after finding the first system, but I wanted to see if I could take this to the next level and improve my chances of showing a profit. I was able to do just that. In games where both teams are playing on exactly five days of rest, the OVER has cashed in at an impressive 60.0% (66-44-2) since 2006. This is clearly a trend that is worth backing blind and definitely one that you want to avoid betting the under at all cost. This situation will almost always come up in games that are played on Friday.

Games That Fit System in 2013

  • Air Force vs Boise State (9/23)
  • Middle Tennessee vs BYU (9/27)
  • Utah State vs San Jose State (9/27)
  • Nevada vs San Diego State (10/4)
  • Temple vs Cincinnati (10/11)
  • Boise State vs BYU (10/25)
  • USC vs Oregon State (11/1)
  • Air Force vs New Mexico (11/15)
  • Washington vs UCLA (11/15)
  • Navy vs San Jose State (11/22)
  • E. Michigan vs C. Michigan (11/29)
  • FIU vs Florida Atlantic (11/29)
  • SMU vs Houston (11/29)
  • Arkansas vs LSU (11/29)
  • East Carolina vs Marshall (11/29)
  • Iowa vs Nebraska (11/29)
  • Oregon State vs Oregon (11/29)
  • Miami vs Pittsburgh (11/29)
  • Washington State vs Washington (11/29)