The Thursday the Troy Trojans (6-2, 3-1 Sun Belt) will host the Idaho vandals (3-5, 2-2 Sun Belt). Kickoff is set for 9:15 EST at Veterans Memorial Stadium and will be televised on ESPNU.
Oddsmakers currently have the Trojans listed as a 18.5-point home favorite with the total set at 51 points. Click here for our full Week 10 betting schedule, with game odds and links to our betting previews.
Idaho vs Troy Betting Preview & Vegas Game Odds
The Vandals enter off a 31-23 win and cover as a slim 2-point home favorite over ULM. Idaho took control of the contest early, jumping out to a 21-0 lead in the 1st half and were up 31-7 midway through the 3rd quarter. The Warhawks scored 16 unanswered to make a game of it, but couldn’t finish off the comeback.
The Trojans made easy work of their last opponent, cruising to a 38-16 win at home over Georgia Southern. However, it wasn’t enough to cover the big number set by the books, as they closed as 23.5-point favorites. The Eagles did a good job of keeping Troy’s offense off the field, as they racked up more than 40 minutes of possession behind 62 rushing attempts.
Last year the Trojans won 34-13 as a 15.5-point road favorite over Idaho. However, the year before in the last meeting at Troy, the Vandals pulled off the upset winning 19-16 as a 9.5-point underdog.
NCAA Football Free Betting Pick & ATS Predictions: Troy -18
I would lean towards backing the Trojans at home in this one. I know this might feel like too many points for an Idaho team that has covered 4 of their last 6, but I see a big enough gap in talent to take Troy to win by 3+ scores.
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The Trojans had a lapse at home against South Alabama back on Oct. 11th, which also happened to be a weekday game (played on a Wednesday). I think that’s key here, as they aren’t going to make that same mistake twice. Troy also isn’t coming off a huge upset win on the road over LSU, which certainly played a big part in their bad showing against the Jaguars.
I also think Idaho has the Trojans full attention, given they left Troy two years ago with a win. At the same time, this is a much tougher spot for Idaho, who has to add a decent trip to Alabama during their short week of preparation for this game. That really puts the Vandals behind the 8-ball here and when you look at how these two matchup, it’s easy to see how Troy could win here by 20+ points.
The Trojans have a potent rushing attack that’s averaging 5.3 yards/carry and will be facing an Idaho defense that gives up nearly 5.0 yards/carry and 190 yards on the road. The Vandals also have a horrific secondary, which we saw first hand a few weeks ago when Missouri piled on 475 passing yards against them. Troy’s senior QB Brandon Silvers should be able to rack up some big yards with the attention the Vandals will have to pay to the ground game.
On the flip side of this, I think Troy’s defense can really make life miserable for Idaho. Keep in mind the Vandals are scoring just 23.6 ppg and that’s against opponents who on average are allowing 31.4 ppg. The Trojans are giving up just 17.2 against teams that average 22.2. If Idaho’s defense doesn’t play one of their best games here, this could get ugly in a hurry in favor of the home team.
Idaho is just 3-11 ATS under head coach Paul Petrino when playing a team with a winning record and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on Thursday. Troy is 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 after a game in which they didn’t cover the spread.