The Baylor Bears will look for their second win of the season this week when they host the Iowa State Cyclones. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST on Saturday, November 18 at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. Fans can watch the game on Fox Sports Net.
Oddsmakers list Iowa State as 9.5-point favorites on the road. The over/under for the game is 54.5 points. Click here for a full list of Week 12 betting odds and links to game previews.
Iowa State vs Baylor Game Preview & Betting Odds
The Cyclones have had a rather magical season, knocking off two top-5 teams. However, hopes of turning those wins into a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game have been dashed by back-to-back losses to West Virginia and Oklahoma State.
At 6-4, the Cyclones will be bowling, but a win over Baylor can solidify a winning season and guarantee a winning record in conference play. Iowa State also has a four-game losing streak to Baylor that they wouldn’t mind seeing come to an end.
Baylor, meanwhile, is just playing out the season. Of course, they’d like to send their seniors out with a win in their final home game. The Bears are 1-9 this year, beating only Kansas. But winning another game late in the season could give them some hope that progress has been made in Matt Rhule’s first season and give them a little momentum heading into next season.
Free NCAA Football Pick Against the Spread: Iowa State -9.5
My early lean in this game is toward Iowa State. To be honest, I have some concerns about the Cyclones after back-to-back losses. I’d also like to give Baylor the benefit of the doubt after playing a little better the past few weeks. But at 1-9, I just can’t trust the Bears. It’s more likely that Iowa State will get back on track and win by double digits.
The biggest concern for Iowa State is the status of quarterback Kyle Kempt, who left last week’s game with an injury. He’s listed as day-to-day, so it’s anybody’s guess if he’ll be able to play. Freshman Zeb Noland would likely start if Kempt can’t go. He was solid if unspectacular against Oklahoma State last week, but I think he’ll be capable of leading the offense against a suspect Baylor defense.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.
To be fair, the Baylor defense has played well the past couple of weeks. They stifled Kansas a couple weeks ago and then held Texas Tech to under 400 yards of offense last week. Of course, the Bears also controlled the clock in that game, which could explain the Red Raiders being limited in yardage.
In that loss to Texas Tech, the Bears also turned the ball over four times and gave up a touchdown on special teams and to the Texas Tech defense. That’s the biggest thing keeping me from giving Baylor a chance to keep it close and beat the spread. Despite giving up 49 points to Oklahoma State last week, the Cyclones have one of the better defenses in the Big 12. It’ll be harder to rack up yards and control the clock against Iowa State than it was against Texas Tech.
The Bears are also sticking with freshman quarterback Charlie Brewer. He’s put up good numbers the past couple of weeks, but those games were against bad defensive teams. I’m inclined to think that the Iowa State defense will have a bounce-back game against a young quarterback and continue to force him to make mistakes and turn the ball over.
In the end, Baylor has only one loss in Big 12 play that came by single digits. Even when they played a decent game against Texas Tech last week, the Bears found a way to lose by two touchdowns. I have enough faith in the Iowa State defense to make me believe the Cyclones can win by at least 10 points and cover the spread.