The #15 overall Texas Longhorns (7-3) host the #16 overall Iowa State Cyclones (6-3) this weekend in a critical Big 12 showdown. Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM EST at Texas Memorial Stadium and the game will be broadcast on The Longhorn Network.
Taking a look at the Week 12 college football odds, Texas opened as a 3-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has remained the same after early betting, as the Longhorns are currently listed at -3. The total for the game is sitting at 46.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Texas vs Iowa State
Iowa State won their fifth consecutive game last weekend, beating Baylor 28-14 to improve to 6-3 on the season overall. The Cyclones started out strong and never looked back, as they led 17-0 at halftime before closing it out in the second half. QB Brock Purdy has thrown for 1,315 yards and 13 touchdowns so far this season – he has also completed an impressive 68.6 percent of his passes. Purdy certainly has a ton of chemistry with WR Hakeem Butler, as the junior has racked up 36 receptions for 816 yards and eight touchdowns in just ten games. RB David Montgomery leads the way on the ground, rushing for 765 yards and six touchdowns. Overall, Iowa State is currently averaging 27.0 points per game on 3704 yards of total offense. They have really been firing on all cylinders as of late, averaging 34.4 points per game and 426.8 total yards during their current five game winning streak.
The Cyclones have really played well on the other side of the ball, allowing opponents to score an average of just 20.4 points per game (22nd overall). They have been especially good against the run so far this season, giving up just 109.4 yards per game on the ground (16th overall).
Texas ended their two game losing streak last weekend, sneaking by state-rival Texas Tech 41-34 to improve to 7-3 on the year. The Longhorns allowed the Red Raiders to tie the game at 34-34 with under two minutes left in the 4th quarter before QB Sam Ehlinger led a 75-yard drive that resulted in the winning touchdown. WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey caught the game-winning pass to cap off a monster 140+ yard performance. Humphrey now almost has 1,000 receiving yards on the season to go with seven touchdowns. As a whole, Texas is currently averaging 33.2 points per game on 426.8 yards of total offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Longhorns are currently giving up 27.5 points per game (67th overall) on 420.1 yards of total offense (86th overall). They have really been exposed through the air, allowing opponents to average 276.2 passing yards per game (117th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Iowa State +3
To me, this matchup is looking more and more like a coinflip. Many are giving the edge to Texas in this particular spot, as the Longhorns are playing at home while Iowa State will be without the services of starting running back David Montgomery for the first two quarters as he serves his suspension for throwing a punch back in Week 11. However, I think the Cyclones have been the far better team on defense, as they are currently giving up a touchdown less per game than Texas. Iowa State is also more than capable offensively – WR Hakeem Butler should have a monster performance against a brutal Longhorns secondary that is getting torched for almost 300 yards per game.
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Texas is just 4-5-1 ATS through ten games so far this season, while Iowa State is an impressive 6-3 ATS on the year. The Cyclones are also 9-1-1 ATS over their last 11 road games and 24-7-1 in their last 32 games overall. The Longhorns certainly haven’t been overly strong at home against Iowa State as of late, going just 2-4 ATS in their last six meetings at Texas Memorial Stadium.
This is definitely shaping up to be one of the more entertaining games on the schedule this weekend, as both of these teams are going to be hungry to continue their climb up the AP Top 25 rankings. Both schools also need to win out to to have any shot at a spot in the Big 12 championship game. While I certainly won’t be surprised if the Longhorns win at home on Saturday, I do think the best value in this matchup is taking Iowa State and the free points – they have a real shot to win outright and even if they don’t, there is still a chance the Cyclones will cover the spread. I’ll roll with the roll underdog.